#比特币价格走势与预测 Looking at the drop from 80% to 11% on Polymarket, a familiar feeling arises in my mind. This collapse of probability is something I’ve seen in 2017 and 2021. Each time, the pattern is the same—first, an exuberant consensus, then the gradual emergence of a gap between reality and expectations, and finally, the breakdown of confidence.

The $100,000 target was considered an attainable dream just a few weeks ago. Now, with an 11% predicted probability, it reflects not just a numerical change but a rapid cooling of market sentiment. I also notice that the probability of reaching $95,000 is only 32%, while the risk of falling below $80,000 has risen to 24%—this structure clearly indicates that the market has shifted from an upward certainty to a defensive stance on the downside.

This reminds me of those historic moments. In each cycle, when the predicted probability begins to diverge from extreme optimism to both ends, it often signals that the market has reached a critical point. It doesn’t necessarily mean a fall is imminent, but the overwhelming consensus has already broken down. What remains is genuine uncertainty—some see the price falling below $80,000, while others are still betting on $95,000.

The recent weeks’ expectation adjustments at the end of the year are, in a sense, healthy. Excessive uniformity in expectations is itself a risk signal. The current divergence actually helps me see the true state of the market more clearly. Time will tell us the answer, just as it has with every past prophecy.