2026-01-03 06:27:33

BTC MVRV post-halving overlap curve may be the most accurate tool currently for judging the long-term cycle position.

Let's first look at the current data. BTC's actual MVRV stands at 1.58, corresponding to a price in the range of $88,000 to $90,000. According to Glassnode's "Three Lines in One" indicator, before January 23, the lowest possible MVRV could dip to 1.27, corresponding to a Bitcoin price of about $71,000. However, based on the comprehensive on-chain data and K-line indicators, the probability of actually reaching this lowest point is not particularly high.

Assuming BTC can smoothly pass through January 23, the next phase will change. Before February 16, there will be a rebound wave, with the MVRV expected to peak at 1.85, and the Bitcoin price could reach around $104,000.

The core of this logic still relies on on-chain data support. From the current market rhythm, short-term price fluctuations will revolve around these two key time windows. For those interested in a deeper understanding of crypto market cycles, such on-chain indicators are indeed worth spending time to study.

BTC1.51%

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LostBetweenChains

· 22h ago

71k, I'm definitely buying the dip, just worried it might be a false alarm again.

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SilentObserver

· 22h ago

Can we really get through this hurdle on January 23rd? It feels too mystical.

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PhantomHunter

· 22h ago

1.58 this level is indeed interesting, but can 71k really be reached? It feels a bit uncertain. --- 104k sounds very tempting, but we need to get through January 23rd first. --- On-chain data is indeed more reliable than candlestick charts, but don't overtrust MVRV. --- This rebound expectation is a bit aggressive; it's better to be cautious. --- I've been watching Glassnode's indicators, but probabilities are really hard to predict. --- Will it drop to 71k before January 23rd? Then I need to be mentally prepared. --- From February 16th to 104k, that's very specific, but whether it can happen is another story. --- I've heard the MVRV overlapping curve theory a few times; how accurate is it really? --- Short-term fluctuations revolve around these two windows; it seems like we need to watch the timing closely. --- Waiting for January 23rd to see the show; then we'll know if this logic is reliable.

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SelfSovereignSteve

· 22h ago

If we can hold through that on January 23rd, it will be stable. We'll see if we can reach 104k by then.

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SandwichDetector

· 22h ago

The MVRV indicator sounds impressive, but the probability of it actually dropping to 71K isn't high... This kind of statement feels like comforting oneself.

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