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In 2026, the start of the year, U.S. economic policies are shifting. The Trump administration is facing high inflation pressures and is gradually adjusting its previous tough tariff policies — moving away from relying solely on trade barriers and instead using tariffs as negotiation tools, while also launching large-scale fiscal stimulus plans. How will this combination impact global financial markets and the crypto ecosystem?

From the "big stick" of tariffs to "bargaining chips" in negotiations

The latest signals are already emerging. The U.S. has delayed plans to impose tariffs on furniture and cabinets, and this is just the beginning. Wall Street analysts believe that in 2026, tariff policies will shift from one-sided trade suppression to a two-way game — initially intimidating foreign companies with high tariffs to encourage increased investment in the U.S.; then moderately reducing tariffs to ease the burden on consumers affected by high prices. Even the U.S. Treasury Secretary has hinted that the effectiveness of pure tariff measures is diminishing.

Trillions of dollars in tax rebates are coming soon

More aggressive fiscal policies are being prepared. Due to the retroactive tax cuts in 2025, over 100 million Americans paid excess payroll taxes last year. During next year's tax season, these individuals will start receiving tax rebate checks, with an average amount potentially reaching $3,278. JPMorgan's warning is noteworthy — this is equivalent to "Stimulus 2.0 during the pandemic," which will directly stimulate consumer demand and push up inflationary pressures. The Congressional Budget Office's estimates show that this measure alone could contribute 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026.

Growth commitments and hidden risks coexist

Optimistic voices in the market are already sounding. Several institutions forecast that the U.S. economy will grow by 3%-3.5% in 2026. But risks are equally apparent:

Debt pressure from expanding deficits. Large-scale fiscal spending means federal deficits will soar, potentially pushing up Treasury yields and even triggering a debt crisis.

Geopolitical black swan factors. The situation in Europe could worsen, and global conflicts may escalate, instantly overturning all market assumptions.

The possibility of inflation rebound. Massive cash inflows into the economy could reignite inflation. Whether the Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates remains a key question.

For crypto market participants, these macro variables directly impact liquidity expectations and risk appetite. Under policy uncertainty, short-term volatility may intensify, but expectations of long-term liquidity release also support asset prices.