January 3, 2026, Bitcoin celebrates its 17th birthday.

This date carries so much meaning. Seventeen years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto recorded the headline of The Times in the genesis block, a cold response to the existing financial order. At that time, Bitcoin was still a belief among geeks and an experimental product for rebels. But now? Any Wall Street research report features Bitcoin as a standard component. Governments around the world consider it an option for strategic reserves. Whether you care or not, the most volatile number in your investment portfolio is likely to be it.

**What happened in 2025**

Over the past year, Bitcoin has accompanied all participants through a rite of passage—simply put, a rollercoaster ride.

From the first half of the year to autumn, the market experienced textbook-level movements. Bitcoin’s total market cap once broke through $4 trillion, and in October, it reached a historic high of $126,000. Behind this rise was no longer retail chasing gains and selling off impulsively, but genuine institutional capital flowing in continuously. Expectations of the US establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, the spot ETF surpassing $100 billion in assets under management—these were once pipe dreams just a few years ago, now all becoming reality.

But "growth" also comes at a cost. After October, the story changed tone. In the fourth quarter, the market suddenly reversed, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 30% from its high, and by the end of the year, it paused around $89,000. This plunge seemed sudden but was actually logical—markets with excessive leverage, when macro liquidity tightening expectations appeared, immediately began self-liquidation. It also ruthlessly exposed a truth of the new era: Bitcoin is no longer an independent asset; it is now deeply tied to the global financial system. It can plunge on a hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve or be dragged down by fluctuations in US stocks.

**The dual nature of the institutional era**

The greatest significance of 2025 for Bitcoin isn’t how high the new highs are, but the qualitative change among participants. From retail-driven to institution-led, this is a fundamental shift. The inflow into spot ETFs is the most direct proof—what does managing over $100 billion in assets mean? It means Bitcoin has been incorporated into the traditional asset allocation framework. Fund managers, pension funds, family offices—these major players now treat Bitcoin as a standard component.

This sounds like good news. Indeed, the influx of institutional capital has brought liquidity and stability to the market. But on the other hand? Institutions have their own game rules. When the Fed’s stance shifts or US stocks fluctuate, these institutional funds will sell Bitcoin without hesitation to manage risks. They chase yields, not faith. That’s why Bitcoin now can experience sharp declines driven by macro factors—it has become a risk asset, no longer an independent store of value.

**The cost from faith to asset**

If you trace Bitcoin’s evolution from the beginning, this shift is quite ironic. Initially, Bitcoin represented a complete rejection of the old financial system. Now, it has been integrated into that system, becoming an investment option on Wall Street. This isn’t betrayal, but a compromise—or rather, the market’s chosen direction.

The direct consequence of the institutional era is that Bitcoin’s volatility has become more "rational," more predictable, and easier for large-cap players to manipulate. The new highs in October and the subsequent plunge fundamentally reflect these big funds adjusting their positions based on macro environments. For individual investors, this means the simple logic of "holding long-term will lead to gains" no longer applies as easily.

**Looking ahead to 2026**

The question now is: what’s next?

The implementation of the US strategic Bitcoin reserve, the continued expansion of spot ETFs, and policies that other countries might follow could all become new drivers. But at the same time, uncertainties in macro liquidity, geopolitical tensions, and Federal Reserve policies are increasing. Bitcoin can no longer return to its relatively independent era; it is now part of the global risk asset ecosystem, moving in sync with the pulse of the entire system.

Holding Bitcoin requires a new mindset: not just focusing on technicals and faith, but also paying attention to macro environments, institutional movements, and policy expectations. This is the cost of growth and the price paid to integrate into the mainstream financial system.