The recent market trend has indeed been distressing—everything is declining across the board, small-cap coins are suffering heavy losses, and the community is filled with pessimistic tones, with public opinion overwhelmingly bearish. The comment sections are full of desperate cries like "It's over," giving the impression that the crypto market is about to collapse.

But hold on, let's not be swayed by emotions. Let's look at what the on-chain data actually shows. You'll find that the situation is entirely different: although prices are crashing, stablecoins are firmly locked on-chain with no withdrawals, large holders are quietly increasing their positions at low prices, and the support levels for mainstream coins remain unchanged. BNB's trading volume is low, but its price just won't fall further. ETH's technical structure remains intact, and BTC quickly rebounded after a sharp dip, recouping losses.

Honestly, this isn't a major crash at all; it more resembles a carefully orchestrated "fake fall, genuine handover" play.

Market sentiment has hit rock bottom—the Crypto Fear & Greed Index once touched single digits 9, a level never seen since the pandemic in 2020. Although there's a slight rebound now, it only barely reaches the 12-25 range, indicating "extreme fear." From an emotional perspective, it does seem quite dangerous.

But the real on-chain data tells a different story:

In the past 30 days, BTC reserves on exchanges have been continuously flowing out, dropping below 2.6 million coins, hitting a new low since 2018. Meanwhile, addresses holding over 100 BTC have actually increased their holdings by about 16,000 BTC during this decline. Even more interesting, those ultra-large holders (with over 10,000 BTC) didn't sell during the most panic-stricken times in November—instead, they kept buying, with a net increase of over 10,000 BTC.