2026-01-03 04:34:58

#数字资产动态追踪 Here are some of my insights on opening positions.

I used to be the type of trader who stared at the screen nonstop. Sitting in front of the four-hour chart, eyes glued, hardly blinking, afraid to miss any potential profit signals. But reality was harsh—frequent trades led to regular stop-losses, and my account was shrinking rapidly. It wasn't until I set strict rules for myself: "Never trade during these specific periods," that my trading career started to turn around.

The "forbidden trading periods" I refer to are three. The first is the 9:30-10:00 a.m. morning session, when emotions from the previous day are released, and the main players try to shake the market—often unpredictable. I used to trade during this time, with a win rate below 35%, yet it accounted for 60% of my total losses. The noon 1:00-2:00 p.m. lull is dead quiet, with prices creeping up or down without clear direction. I often impulsively place trades out of boredom. The last risky period is 2:30-3:00 p.m., when the big players' small moves often set traps for the next day. Chasing these can lead to a "one-day trade" lesson waiting to happen.

Trading during these periods costs more than just losses; paying transaction fees repeatedly can wipe out your profits. Worse, when a real good opportunity arises, you either have no bullets left or are mentally exhausted from constant trading. Later, I changed my approach: I only trade during three confirmed windows—after 10:00 a.m., when the market's strength is clear; at 11:00 a.m., when the main players make a second move; and after 2:00 p.m., to prepare for the next day.

With this new approach, my trading frequency was cut in half, my win rate jumped from 42% to 63%, and my drawdowns became more manageable. I realized that the real skill in trading isn't about frequent entries, but about resisting boredom and avoiding impulsive moves. Giving up small opportunities allows you to seize big ones that can change the game. Ultimately, less is more—that's the key to winning in trading. $BTC

BTC1.51%

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SunnyOk

2026-01-02 15:23:36

The current market shows obvious bullish strength but short-term overbought characteristics.
Below is a detailed analysis and operational advice based on technical indicators (Bollinger Bands BOLL, MACD, KDJ):
1. Market Trend Analysis
• Daily Level (1D): Trend turning stronger. Price has volume-broken through the middle band of Bollinger Bands (around 2962), moving upward toward the upper band (3051). MACD green bars are expanding, a golden cross has just appeared, indicating a warming trend.
• 4-Hour Level (4H): Very strong momentum. Price is running along the upper band of Bollinger Bands (3068), in a typical “one-sided upward” pattern. However, the J value in the KDJ indicator has reached about 85, in the overbought zone, suggesting short-term consolidation or pullback is needed.
• 1-Hour / 15-Minute Level: Short-term rally followed by a pullback. After touching around 3108, the price retreated to about 3071, showing significant resistance at the 3100 level.
2. Key Level Consolidation
• Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance: 3100 - 3110 (recent high, psychological barrier)
• Strong Resistance: 3150 (previous dense trading zone)
• Support Levels:
• First Support: 3030 - 3050 (1-hour Bollinger middle band, support at the breakout point of the daily upper band)
• Core Support: 2980 - 3000 (4-hour Bollinger middle band, dividing line between strength and weakness)
3. Trading Strategy Suggestions
Long Position Plan: Wait for a pullback to enter (higher win rate)
Since the current price is at a short-term high, directly chasing long positions may lead to shakeouts.
• Entry Point: It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back to around 3030 - 3050 before entering.
• Small Stop Loss: Set at 2995 (breaking below 3000 psychological barrier and 4-hour middle band would invalidate the bullish logic).
• Target: Aim for 3100, and after breaking through, look toward 3150.
Short Position Plan: Play for a pullback at high levels (counter-trend operation)
The current upward momentum is strong, so shorting requires extreme caution and is only recommended as a short-term play.
• Safe Entry: Scenario A: When the price tests 3100 - 3110 a second time without breaking through and shows a volume-increasing bearish candle.
• Scenario B: If volume breaks through 3110, watch for false breakout signals around 3145 - 3155.
• Stop Loss: Place above 3165.
• Target: Look toward around 3050.
Core Summary
Ethereum is currently in a bullish phase, and trading should mainly focus on “buying on dips.”
• Risk Reminder: The 15-minute chart has started to show decreasing volume and consolidation. If support at 3050 cannot hold, there may be a retracement toward the 3000 level. Be sure to strictly execute stop losses.
$ETH #我的2026第一条帖 #ETH走势分析 #GateCEO2025年终公开信 #策略 #Gate广场

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