2026-01-03 04:25:39

Today, right at the open, the market sentiment clearly shifted. The main index experienced a significant rally, and many are asking— is this a rebound or a true reversal?

Actually, this wave of market movement didn't appear out of nowhere. I’ve observed carefully, and there are four key signals being released simultaneously behind the scenes, which are worth pondering.

**First Signal: Macroeconomic Expectations Are Turning**

The Federal Reserve officials' speech last night was interpreted by the market as a dovish signal, directly boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026. In other words, concerns about liquidity tightening that had been prevalent earlier have temporarily eased. This provides the fundamental support for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

**Second Signal: Major Institutions Are Moving**

From on-chain data, tens of thousands of BTC have flowed out of exchanges in the past 24 hours into long-term holding addresses. Meanwhile, publicly listed companies like MicroStrategy are still increasing their holdings openly, continuously injecting confidence into the market. This is no longer just retail investors' sentiment; the early deployment by "smart money" institutions is very evident.

**Third Signal: Technicals and Sentiment Are Ready**

After prolonged consolidation or even decline, the market has accumulated a demand for a rebound from oversold conditions. Once key levels are broken, a large number of stop-loss orders and cautious funds are instantly activated, creating resonance. This kind of technical resonance is often quite interesting to watch.

**Fourth Signal: Fundamentals Have Never Stopped Building**

Core sectors like RWA, DePIN, and modular blockchain development have been ongoing. Continuous infrastructure and application development provide real value support for the market, not just hype-driven sentiment.

**My Thoughts**

A single day’s rally is not enough to declare the return of a bull market, but it clearly tells us a few things:

The market remains highly sensitive to global liquidity. Left-side positioning is always more stable than chasing after rallies and selling on dips. In volatility, truly focusing on those sectors and projects still in development is key to navigating cycles.

This is my quick observation of this wave of market movement. I hope it provides some useful insights for you.

BTC2.33%

RWA1.29%

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consensus_failure

· 01-03 04:55

Institutions are taking action, while retail investors are still debating whether it's a rebound or a reversal. The gap is really big. Tens of thousands of BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, MicroStrategy is buying again, the logic is right here. Macro shifts, technical resonance, fundamental support... all are quite accurate, but the real profit-makers are those who have laid out in advance. Those who positioned early on the left side have already been earning passively; it's a bit late to follow the trend now. RWA and these tracks are indeed being built, but there is still risk in chasing high. Is the market so optimistic in just one day? I’d better see if it can hold steady in this wave first.

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BearHugger

· 01-03 04:55

Institutions are really quietly getting on board, this time is different... The signal of BTC flowing out of exchanges is too obvious. --- Is it a rebound or a reversal? Neither matters, just watch whether the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance. --- I've been listening to the left-side layout for years, but I just can't bring myself to take action haha. --- Is RWA about to take off? I've never understood this track. --- MicroStrategy is increasing its holdings again? This guy is really betting on the fate of the country. --- When liquidity loosens, retail investors get excited; this problem can't be fixed. --- Tens of thousands of BTC flow out every 24 hours... Data doesn't lie, but retail investors don't listen. --- The idea of technical resonance sounds like a prelude to a rally. --- Instead of analyzing rebounds or reversals, it's better to ask yourself if you're brave enough to buy the dip on the left side. --- Fundamental development is real, but you have to live until that day.

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POAPlectionist

· 01-03 04:54

Tens of thousands of BTC flowing out of exchanges? That’s the real signal. Retail investors are still struggling with rebounds and reversals, while institutions have already started to position themselves. --- The Federal Reserve’s dovish speech is about to cut the grass again. How many times has this routine been played, and people still believe it? --- Talking about left-side positioning sounds easy, but I’m just worried about another big dump on the left side. --- In sectors like RWA and DePIN, which ones are truly not just air? --- Analyzing the four major signals just within a day’s increase—are they just making excuses to add to their positions? --- MicroStrategy is still increasing holdings. It seems big players are really confident. Maybe this time, it’s truly different. --- The set of technical resonance signals can fool newcomers, but I still trust on-chain data more. --- What does it take to cross cycles? Don’t overcomplicate it—just stick to not selling. --- Expectations of rate cuts are being priced in until 2026? That’s quite a story to tell.

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SleepyValidator

· 01-03 04:54

Institutions are quietly accumulating, while retail investors are still debating whether it's a rebound or a reversal... Truly classic. --- As soon as the rate cut expectations appear, the market rises. The liquidity game never goes out of style. --- BTC is flowing out of exchanges? MicroStrategy is adding to its holdings again? This rhythm is indeed a bit interesting. --- To put it nicely, it's just gambling on the Fed's face. --- RWA, DePIN, these infrastructure projects are indeed moving, but whether they can withstand the next round of sell-off is another matter. --- I've heard countless times about left-side positioning, but it's still about who can buy the dip at the right moment. --- One day's increase and people start talking about crossing cycles? Let's see how many days it can rise first. --- On-chain data shows accumulation; I only believe this is a true reversal... Maybe. --- The problem is retail investors can't wait for the left side; they're all on the ride chasing gains and selling at dips. --- Technical resonance... sounds just like the real thing. Next time there's a sell-off, they'll use this same phrase.

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ForkLibertarian

· 01-03 04:53

Institutions are accumulating, while retail investors are still debating whether it's a rebound or a reversal, and the gap... Wait, is there really something in the RWA sector, or are they just hyping concepts again? MicroStrategy is adding to its holdings again, this time surely not the bag-holder, right? As soon as liquidity loosens, they buy everything. I know this routine too well. BTC is flowing out of exchanges, which means some people still have confidence. Those who positioned on the left side have already made profits, while those chasing the high are still at a loss. If this wave truly turns, it would be great, but I’ll wait and see. How long can the macro easing expectations last? That’s the real key. Projects like DePIN are indeed laying the groundwork, but only a few will really stand out. A single stop-loss activation can cause a surge; sometimes technical analysis can be really unpredictable. Compared to rebounds or reversals, I’m more concerned about when institutions will start dumping. A daily increase of just a few percent and they start talking about cycles; this market has a really big temper. Liquidity sensitivity is so high, indicating everyone is betting on the Fed’s next move.

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ProbablyNothing

· 01-03 04:45

Tens of thousands of BTC flowing out of exchanges? Institutions are starting to buy the dip again, this wave is truly different. Is it a rebound or a reversal? These four signals are quite solid and not just hype. The Federal Reserve's dovish speech immediately energized the assets; liquidity expectations can really change everything. MicroStrategy is still adding to its holdings? Alright, the actions of big institutions are the best signals. I need to pay more attention to technical resonance; I can't afford to miss the next dip. Wait, is the fundamental construction true? RWA and those tracks are still a bit uncertain. A day's increase isn't enough to say much, but it seems hot money is finally less panicked. Left-side positioning always beats chasing the rally; this phrase hit my pain point. Riding through cycles still depends on choosing the right track, not just constantly flipping K-lines.

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GasFeeCrier

· 01-03 04:31

Institutions are bottom-fishing, retail investors are still debating whether it's a rebound or a reversal, hilarious. Hmm... it seems this time is really different. The signal of BTC outflow from exchanges can't be ignored. Dovish statements = expectation of easing, when liquidity loosens, everything can rise, it's the old routine. The term "left-side positioning" has become cliché, but those who make money are indeed doing it this way. I'm still waiting. Is RWA really under construction? It still feels mostly conceptual.

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