In the $1.48 trillion ETF feast, why did BlackRock IBIT alone suffer a loss of 6.41%

The global ETF market created a milestone in 2025: a net inflow of $1.48 trillion, a 28% increase compared to 2024. However, amidst this feast, there is a clear outlier—the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT). As one of the top six ETFs globally, IBIT is the only one among the top 15 ETFs to report a negative return, with an annual return of -6.41%. What does this reflect?

The Disparity Between Global ETF Prosperity and IBIT’s Performance

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the ETF market in 2025 exceeded expectations. The net inflow of $1.48 trillion set a record high, indicating growing investor confidence in ETFs as an investment vehicle, especially in the crypto asset sector.

But IBIT’s performance stands in stark contrast. Despite managing assets worth $248.44 billion, ranking sixth worldwide, IBIT experienced losses in 2025. This is not due to product design issues but because its underlying asset—the Bitcoin—performed poorly.

Poor BTC Performance Is the Fundamental Cause

A recent report clearly states that IBIT’s negative return “due to Bitcoin’s overall poor performance last year.” While this statement is concise, its underlying meaning warrants deeper understanding.

From related information, Bitcoin’s trend in 2025 was unstable. Although Bitcoin rebounded after entering 2026 (rising approximately 1.5-1.78% on January 2-3), this did not change its overall performance for 2025. Bitcoin declined by 3.46% over 30 days, a short-term performance that already reflects the overall weakness of the previous year.

BlackRock’s Complex Attitude

It is noteworthy that, despite IBIT’s poor performance, BlackRock’s actions are quite interesting. Reports indicate that BlackRock continued to deposit large amounts of BTC and ETH into Binance and Coinbase at the beginning of 2026. On January 2 alone, they deposited 1,134 BTC (worth $101.4 million) and 7,255 ETH (worth $22.1 million).

This seemingly contradictory behavior could have several explanations: first, risk management—diversifying holdings to reduce risk; second, facilitating trading or selling; third, providing liquidity services for institutional clients. Regardless of the reason, it reflects that BlackRock’s attitude toward crypto assets is still evolving.

The Overall Picture for Institutional Investors

From a broader perspective, institutional investors’ attitude toward crypto assets is not entirely bearish. According to related reports, throughout 2025, U.S. investors net bought over 2.47 million ETH, accounting for 40% of the total ETH supply; U.S. institutions net bought 104,847 BTC, representing 8% of the total BTC holdings in the U.S.

This indicates that, despite BlackRock’s selling at the end and beginning of the year, the overall institutional capital flow remains net inflow. IBIT’s negative return more reflects Bitcoin’s own performance rather than a loss of confidence in crypto assets.

Summary

The $1.48 trillion net inflow into the global ETF market in 2025 is indeed a historic high, but IBIT’s -6.41% return reminds us that ETF performance ultimately depends on the performance of its underlying assets. The reason why BlackRock IBIT is the only negative-yielding ETF among the top 15 is fundamentally due to Bitcoin’s poor performance in 2025. However, the overall net buying data from institutional investors shows that confidence in crypto assets remains intact in the long term. The trend in 2026 will largely depend on whether Bitcoin can sustain its recent rebound momentum.