As 2025 is already halfway through, it's worth reflecting on the investment gains and lessons learned this year. The overall strategy can be best summarized with four characters—"Zen Holding"—very few trades, mostly holding the projects I believe in, with only minor adjustments. Of course, there have been new attempts, including venturing into the stock market—touching US stocks, Japanese stocks, and A-shares. But these markets have taught me what "cognitive ceiling" really means.



Now, let's focus on the crypto sector. Over the past two years, I've had a very clear feeling: this market is undergoing unprecedented changes, no longer simply fitting the traditional "bull-bear cycle theory." The previous four-year cycle approach was indeed effective over the past decade, with the automatic thinking being—after Bitcoin rises, funds will flow into altcoins, it's just a matter of time. But this time, things are different.

In 2024, Bitcoin surged significantly, and logically, 2025 should be the altcoin season, with hopes for two rounds of market rallies. But what happened? The altcoin season never arrived; instead, the market kept bleeding. Old coins one after another were dumped, some prices even fell below the bottom of the 2022 bear market; new coins, if they didn't immediately dump, were considered good, but the era of tenfold or hundredfold surges is gone. In contrast, Bitcoin in 2025 remains strong, continuing to write its own story. What does this indicate? It suggests that the previous experience framework may really need to be re-evaluated.
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OnchainFortuneTellervip
· 5h ago
The "Zen" holding logic is really no longer effective now; the four-year cycle has been shattered. Shanzhai projects are still struggling, while Bitcoin is thriving on its own. The landscape has changed, my friend. The term "cognitive ceiling" is used well; I've also been hit pretty hard. The old playbook has been completely reset. Who dares to say they understand it now? New coins breaking below their issuance price has become normal; this market has been cleaned out so thoroughly. Bitcoin is writing its own story, and we'll just accompany it. What else can we do?
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ImaginaryWhalevip
· 5h ago
Holding in a laid-back manner sounds good, but based on your description, the bloodbath in altcoins is really heartbreaking. The four-year cycle has been broken, no wonder so many people have been confused these past two years. Bitcoin keeps rising, altcoins keep falling, I guess I should change my approach too. The term "cognitive ceiling" is used perfectly; it feels like everyone needs to relearn. If this trend continues, maybe I should just go all-in on BTC this year; altcoins really can't be saved.
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SchrodingerWalletvip
· 6h ago
This theoretical framework indeed needs to be broken; the era of BTC dominance has arrived.
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DaoGovernanceOfficervip
· 6h ago
the four-year cycle thesis is empirically dead, and honestly, most people still haven't internalized this shift yet
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