2026-01-03 01:21:00

Recently, a forecast chart predicting a Fed rate cut in 2026 has gone viral online, making it look like someone "spoiled" the ending. But don’t get too excited; let’s rationally analyze this matter.

This "script" actually comes from economists at Barclays Bank. Their proposed plan is: a 25 basis point cut in March, followed by another in June. At first glance, it seems quite specific, and indeed it can easily give the impression of an early spoiler for the big finale of the TV series. The problem is, the Fed’s internal attitude right now is very冷 (cool). The latest dot plot reveals their true thoughts— they only predict one rate cut in 2026, and some officials even lean towards keeping rates unchanged. That’s quite a gap.

What does the data say? Market bets on a rate cut in March are only about 45%, meaning the probability isn’t very high. Although inflation shows signs of easing, it’s still fluctuating, and economic data remains resilient. Powell’s recent stance is "let’s see first," with no rush.

More importantly, external factors could disrupt the plan. If inflation suddenly rebounds, geopolitical tensions escalate, or there are major fiscal policy moves, the entire rate cut timetable might need to be rewritten. The Fed’s commitments are never set in stone; market expectations and actual actions often reverse several times.

From an asset allocation perspective, if a rate cut cycle truly begins, historical experience tells us: bonds will be the first to rise (holding long-term government bonds and similar safe assets is a good choice); then growth stocks (the tech sector has valuation repair potential, and the Nasdaq could see a new wave of opportunities); as for the cryptocurrency market, it’s more volatile—rising quickly during upswings, and dropping just as fast during downturns. These assets are suitable for participants with risk tolerance.

The core logic is: a rate cut is highly likely, but don’t expect it to be perfectly timed or to happen exactly as predicted. Barclays’ analysis framework is just a reference, not something to see as "inevitable." The real way to profit is to base decisions on actual data, not on various "waves of wealth."

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LightningClicker

· 6h ago

Here we go again, why is Barclays so confident? The Federal Reserve hasn't given any indication yet. Powell's attitude remains cold and firm. What are the chances of a 45% play? If the crypto market really cuts rates this time, it still depends on how inflation behaves. The variables are too unpredictable. Instead of guessing the timetable, it's more reliable to look at actual data. Don't be fooled by predictions. Rate cuts are inevitable; the key is when. Right now, it's unpredictable.

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VCsSuckMyLiquidity

· 6h ago

Another wave of "spoiler" market, to put it plainly, is just armchair strategizing; Powell simply doesn't buy into it. No matter how much Barclays spins, it can't change the reality of a 45% probability; rate cuts still depend on the data. Repeated inflation fluctuations, geopolitical chaos—if the situation gets messy, the entire timeline has to be overturned; that's the Fed's nature. I'm definitely betting on crypto; high volatility is stimulating. Anyway, just treat it as a gamble with spare money. Don't be brainwashed by various predictions; you still need to trust your own trading logic.

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ZKSherlock

· 6h ago

actually... barclays calling their shots like they got the fed's playbook is kind of hilarious. 45% odds on march cuts? that's basically a coin flip dressed up in economics language. powell's whole "let's wait and see" vibe is honestly the most honest thing anyone's said about this.

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ColdWalletAnxiety

· 6h ago

It's the same old trick again, Barclays calls for rate cuts, the Federal Reserve plays deaf, and the market thinks about going all in with a 45% probability? Wake up, buddy. Speaking of which, inflation has been such a headache that I don't even know when it will finally settle down. The key still depends on Powell's mood—"wait and see" is the code—stay steady and don't get carried away. When the rate cut cycle really arrives, I'll first use government bonds as a safety net, then consider tech stocks and those lively crypto assets. Honestly, these "spoiler" charts are mostly for reference; who knows when a reversal might happen—The Fed has always been like that. Instead of waiting for various predictions, it's better to focus on actual data; that way, sleep quality can improve. The market is unpredictable, so decision-making still relies on your own judgment—don't get blinded by the "wave of wealth." The cold wallets of workers also have to sway with the market; after all, we're all gambling.

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AirdropDreamer

· 6h ago

Barclays is spinning stories again, claiming a 45% probability as a sure thing—I've seen this trick too many times. Wait, can the crypto sector really turn around just by cutting interest rates? I always feel a bit skeptical. They haven't even cut rates yet but are already planning asset allocations. Maybe we should first see how the data develops. Powell's "let's see first" is probably a hint to the bears, haha. Another moment of market expectation reversal is coming. It feels like we should prepare for multiple moves in this round.

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CryptoMom

· 7h ago

Another bunch of predictions, I just want to know who can really hit the mark. Barclays sounds nice, but the Federal Reserve's attitude is indifferent— isn’t this gap just a joke? Less than a 45% probability, it's even less accurate than my intuition, haha. Trust in a rate cut? That’s a joke. Forex, politics, inflation— if one is unstable, the whole game is lost. I'm optimistic about tech stocks; the Nasdaq definitely has a chance this time. In the crypto world, as always, making money depends more on courage and luck. Instead of waiting for the big shots to make statements, it's better to watch the market yourself.

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Tokenomics911

· 7h ago

Once again, it's the "spoiler Fed" trick. Wake up, everyone; a 45% probability is not a sure thing at all. Barclays' plan sounds perfect, but the Fed's own thoughts are ice-cold, and the gap is really outrageous. If they do cut interest rates, crypto is probably going to experience another roller coaster. Don't blame others; this is the fate of risk assets.

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