2026-01-02 23:26:50

Bitcoin has been hitting some interesting levels lately. Looking back at the patterns from the 12-month candles, there's something worth noting: BTC tested that 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci zone twice out of three times.

2014 and 2018 both saw it happen. 2022 didn't. Here's where it gets interesting though—in 2014 and 2018, this move went down within just 6 days right after New Year kicked off. And in both cases? After touching those levels, BTC went on to break lower.

BTC0.72%

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

6 Likes

Reward
6
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

AirdropHunterWang

· 8h ago

Fibonacci is back again, does this trick work every time?

View OriginalReply0

BlockchainDecoder

· 8h ago

According to studies, the effectiveness of Fibonacci retracement levels indeed exhibits obvious cyclical characteristics, but this sample size (n=3) is clearly insufficient to support a strong conclusion. It is worth noting that the fact that the 2022 level did not touch this range precisely indicates that market dynamics are evolving. Simple historical repetition theories rarely hold true for crypto assets. It is recommended that everyone be cautious of the overfitting trap.

View OriginalReply0

GameFiCritic

· 8h ago

This Fibonacci stuff... honestly, it does have some reference value in macro cycles, but why didn't it trigger in 2022? That's the key. The data sample is too small, afraid of being misled.

View OriginalReply0

FloorSweeper

· 9h ago

lol fib levels hitting different when retail's still holding bags from last cycle... 2022 broke the pattern tho? classic setup for a counter-trade tbh

Reply0

BlockchainBrokenPromise

· 9h ago

Wow, Fibonacci is back again. Is there really a pattern this time?

View OriginalReply0