Recently, I saw something in the prediction market. A trader made nearly a million dollars by taking a contrarian position and was subsequently dubbed a "geopolitical expert." But upon closer examination of his trading logic, things are not that simple.

The tactics used by these types of players are actually quite consistent. They tend to act at the peak of hot topics and when retail investor sentiment is at its highest. At this point, the market is filled with optimistic expectations, and retail traders are all betting in one direction, which is precisely the best time for them to sell at the top.

Wait—is it really because they have access to some top-secret geopolitical information? Or are they just accurately grasping the cycle of retail psychology? Thinking carefully, the latter is more likely.

Retail investors tend to follow the trend when public opinion is at its hottest, while professional traders are precisely the ones who cash out profits at this point. Prediction markets work this way; emotional swings often happen faster than fundamental changes. Before something truly happens in reality, some have already quietly exited.