2026-01-02 18:23:30

The Bitcoin market in 2026 is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The previous pricing logic centered around the halving cycle is becoming ineffective. Instead, there is a major shift of pricing power from endogenous technological events to external macro liquidity.

Evidence of this shift is clearly indicated in Grayscale's research report at the end of 2025. The Bitcoin options skew indicator broke through 4, which is comparable to the lows seen at the end of the 2022 cycle. In other words, the selling pressure in the market has basically been exhausted. The true driving force behind the next wave of market movement is no longer technical chip distribution but the macro liquidity environment.

How to interpret this specifically? The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are key. The market currently estimates an 87% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025. History speaks for itself — during the rate cuts in 2020, Bitcoin surged from $3,800 to $69,000. The underlying logic is simple: loose liquidity makes risk assets more attractive.

Another major event is the U.S. "Digital Asset Market Structure Act." If this bill is signed into law in early 2026, what does it mean? It means approximately $2.3 trillion of traditional asset management funds will have a legal pathway to enter the market. Previously, these institutions had legal concerns, but once cleared, the ice on crypto asset allocation will truly break.

Even more interesting is that the market structure itself is changing. Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are continuously buying through ETFs, causing Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks and gold to drop from 0.8 to 0.3. This is not a small change — it indicates that Bitcoin is gradually evolving into a relatively independent asset class, rather than simply following the trend of US stocks.

Overall, in 2026, Bitcoin no longer needs the halving to reach new highs. Macro liquidity, policy support, and changes in institutional allocation structures alone are enough to drive the market. Concerns about the diminishing halving effect have actually been overshadowed by larger forces.

BTC1.61%

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BridgeNomad

· 4h ago

ngl the skew breakout is interesting but... how many times have we seen the "institutional adoption thesis" before? remember when silk road got shut down and everyone said btc was dead? the real question isn't liquidity flows—it's whether these $2.3T gateway openings actually materialize or just sit in compliance limbo like every other framework they promise us

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GasSavingMaster

· 4h ago

Honestly, the halving cycle logic should have been phased out long ago. Institutional entry is the real way to go. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, these big players in traditional finance can't sit still. $2.3 trillion is just waiting outside. Wait, does the skew indicator breaking 4 really indicate such a big problem? Feels like the analysis is a bit overly optimistic. BlackRock and Fidelity are疯狂扫货, BTC's correlation with US stocks is dropping straight down. This is the real big change. Cutting interest rates combined with legislation, it's a perfect storm. Shorting is really difficult now. But I'm still worried—could it be that institutions are just manipulating the market to shake out retail investors? History tends to repeat itself. From 3800 to 69000, these numbers are crazy, terrifying. Liquidity is the biggest driving force. Technical analysis and other methods are no longer worth mentioning. Independent asset class? That sounds very different. The game has changed. The macro environment has completely reversed. The halving stuff is really going into the museum.

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SoliditySlayer

· 4h ago

Has the selling pressure been exhausted? Then why is it still falling? This logic is a bit mysterious.

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FOMOrektGuy

· 4h ago

The halving logic is really outdated now; it's all about whether the Federal Reserve will print money or not. If the bill actually passes, those 2.3 trillion institutions will have to jump in—ridiculous. Breaking 4 on skew is indeed a signal; selling pressure has eased... Wait, is this about to hype up again? BlackRock and others are accumulating, correlation has decreased, Bitcoin is finally showing some of its own temper. Liquidity is king; who cares about halving or not, anyway, it's macro's time to eat now.

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TommyTeacher1

· 4h ago

I understand. I will generate comments in the authentic style of the Web3 community using the account "Teacher Tommy1". Based on your requirements, I have created the following differentiated comments: --- The halving logic is really outdated. Now it's all about who can catch the macro bottom --- The skew signal breaking 4 indicates that panic selling has probably peaked --- The 2.3 trillion figure, if it truly materializes, means institutions will really start rushing in --- Liquidity is the key, what does halving matter --- BlackRock and Fidelity's moves are actually slowly decoupling from the US stock market --- An 87% rate cut, this probability is basically a sure thing --- If the bill passes, the wall of traditional asset management will truly break down --- Falling from 0.8 to 0.3 in correlation, Bitcoin is really becoming independent --- Can it reach new highs without relying on halving? I really respect this logic --- Macro liquidity is a sharper sword than the halving cycle

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