Want to understand the true direction of Ethereum? Just looking at candlestick charts isn't enough. You need to compare technical indicators with on-chain data to get the full picture.

Recently, on-chain data has revealed an interesting phenomenon: on one side, institutions are adjusting their holdings, while on the other, retail investor sentiment is as cold as an ice cellar. Who's judgment is more reliable? Let the data speak.

**What Are the Big Players Doing**

Addresses holding over 10,000 ETH increased their holdings by 2.3% this week, equivalent to about 240,000 ETH. It sounds like a lot, but the growth rate has dropped by 40% from the December peak. Meanwhile, net outflows from exchanges have been positive for five consecutive days, averaging a net outflow of 18,000 ETH per day. What does this indicate? Large holders are indeed accumulating spot assets, but their enthusiasm is cooling down.

**The Truth Behind ETF Data**

The US spot Ethereum ETF has experienced a total net outflow of $533 million. Among them, Grayscale's ETHE once accounted for 67% of daily outflows. Funds are withdrawing, which indeed puts downward pressure on the price. But there's a detail that's easy to overlook—the ETF outflows and price declines are not perfectly correlated. In other words, the apparent dumping might not be as severe as it looks.

**Futures Market Is Releasing Pressure**

Open interest remains high at around $38 billion, but funding rates have shifted to neutral levels (±0.01%). Leverage risk has been significantly released compared to December. If the funding rate can stay stable, the probability of a sudden "longs killing longs" flash crash will be greatly reduced.

**Overall Outlook**

Although short-term market sentiment is somewhat bearish, the accumulation actions of whales combined with the unwinding of futures risk are actually laying a foundation for Ethereum. One indicator worth watching is—if the combined index of whale accumulation ratio, exchange net outflows, and futures funding rates can rise above 0.5, a rebound is often not far behind.