There is a particularly heartbreaking historical detail—those who bought in at the peak in 1980, investing in strategic metals like tin, rare earths, and titanium, ended up lying flat for the next 20 years as prices were hammered to the floor. No matter how strong the demand, it couldn't save them; during the computer and internet boom, prices still remained at rock bottom.

There is a pattern behind this: the pricing power of these metals is not rooted in the "demand side," which is a slow variable, but in the "fear side," a fast variable.

**The story begins in the 70s: Fear creates wealth**

During the Cold War between the US and the USSR, tensions intensified with plans like "Star Wars" and an arms race, coupled with two oil crises. The Western bloc started hoarding strategic materials frantically. By 1980, tin prices soared to a historic high, and the prices of rare earths, titanium, cobalt, and other materials doubled. But frankly, this wasn't driven by genuine demand; it was a combination of "national strategic stockpiling + capital speculation."

**Collapse begins after 1980: Fear subsides, demand is useless**

In 1985, Reagan and Gorbachev met, and in 1987, they signed the INF Treaty, signaling a clear easing of Cold War tensions. After the Soviet Union disintegrated, the world entered a "great détente," with countries starting to sell off strategic reserves. Production capacity continued to expand, leading to a sharp decline—

Tin prices fell 90% from their 1980 peak, only recovering around 2000; rare earths and titanium fared even worse, remaining depressed until after 2010, when new energy demands gradually sparked some recovery.

See, even with the explosive growth in semiconductor and internet demand, it couldn't prevent the impact of the "fear side" collapsing the pricing power.

**Reflecting on the present: AI, new energy, and great power rivalry as benchmarks**

Currently, AI and new energy do generate long-term demand, but what truly pushes prices up is still the "mutual distrust among great powers," this fast variable. History will repeat itself, but each time, the details are different.