In 2026, the market kicked off with a big show—the Federal Reserve's dot plot will determine the upcoming market direction. Honestly, the current performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum entirely depends on whether liquidity expectations can be fulfilled.

From the data, the Federal Reserve is now holding interest rates firmly above 3.5%. The 25 basis point rate cut last year seems more like a gesture, with inflation data stuck at 2.4% and GDP actually surging to 2.3%. With these figures in front of us, the anticipated massive liquidity injection is basically off the table.

Inside Wall Street, divisions have already emerged. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are aggressive, betting on consecutive rate cuts in March and June; JPMorgan Chase, on the other hand, is much more conservative, expecting only one cut this year; there are even more extreme voices calling for "zero rate cuts" or a "150 basis point plunge," presenting opposing scenarios.

The biggest uncertainty is that Powell might leave office in May. If the new leader is dovish Haskett, the game could change entirely. So, this January's FOMC meeting, to some extent, concerns the liquidity landscape for all of 2026.

How to respond? First, don’t rush into full positions; wait until the dot plot is released and market sentiment has settled. Second, keep an eye on expectation gaps—whether inflation data is declining and employment data is worsening—as these will determine market confidence in the "slow rate cuts" narrative. Third, sector selection: small-cap tokens with underlying liquidity might have opportunities, ecosystem tokens could outperform the broader market, and narrative-driven sector tokens are bets for extreme gains.

My own approach is this: if there's a significant pullback, buy the dip in Bitcoin and Ethereum as safe-haven assets; during rebounds, focus on strong public chain ecosystems; keep 5% of your capital to chase new concepts and stories. History shows that the greatest opportunities often emerge amid divergence and uncertainty. After the dot plot is released, the market's first reaction is usually the most intense. If you can accurately interpret signals at that moment, the profit potential can be substantial.

What’s your take? Do you think there will be a rate cut in March? What is your current position allocation? Share your thoughts, and let’s see how this storm unfolds together.