Wall Street signals a major shift at the start of the year—the latest dot plot indicates that there may be only one rate cut throughout 2026, which is far from the market's previous optimistic expectations. Under the ongoing tightening pressure, market liquidity has been squeezed to its limit.

From a technical perspective, the current situation is indeed very delicate. The two price levels at 3010 and 2980 have become the critical dividing lines between bulls and bears. These levels are not just simple numbers—they represent stacked liquidation positions. Once one side breaks through, it could trigger sudden and intense volatility, even chain reactions.

The current dilemma is that institutional investors are wavering between the possibility of zero rate cuts and a dovish policy shift, making market sentiment extremely fragile. The real turning point will be revealed at the FOMC meeting at the end of January. In such macro turbulence, whether enough consensus and certainty can be found is key to navigating the volatility.

Will an upward breakout trigger a new rally cycle? Or will the market continue to probe downward to complete the final shakeout? The answer may become clear in the coming weeks.