#数字资产动态追踪 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

New Year Opening Market Explodes: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Trigger Global Volatility

On the first trading day of 2025, uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy has become the main focus of global capital markets. Nasdaq futures rose by 1.2%, but underlying disagreements are becoming more apparent — Goldman Sachs predicts a 75 basis point rate cut this year, while Citibank warns that worsening labor market conditions could trigger 3-5 rate cuts. The divergence between the two major investment banks highlights the market’s confusion about the Fed’s direction.

From a policy perspective, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three consecutive times since September last year, bringing the benchmark rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range. On the surface, inflation data still appears stable, but signals of a weakening employment market cannot be ignored. More troubling is the faint emergence of concerns over U.S. debt default behind the bailout expectations — this is not alarmist talk, but risks that market participants are quietly calculating.

There are signs of a turning point in trade. The U.S. has paused tariffs on Chinese chips, which could lead to a phased easing of supply chain pressures. However, trade data for the first 10 months still shows a 16.6% decline in exports. The road to recovery is still long.

The tech industry shows no signs of cooling down. TSMC is doubling its CoWoS capacity, Nvidia’s bold bets in AI continue to heat up, and SpaceX’s valuation has soared to $1.5 trillion. Commodities are also rallying: lithium prices rebounded by 84%, and silver surged by 5%, as safe-haven funds flow into precious metals.

For the crypto market, this situation presents both opportunities and challenges. Easing expectations support a rebound in risk assets, but the uncertainty surrounding policy turning points remains looming overhead. Many questions remain for 2026: Will the Fed continue to cut rates? Can China-U.S. economic and trade relations achieve real stability? How will the AI wave reshape the entire industry landscape? The storm has only just begun…