2026-01-02 15:21:56

Recently, many people in the group have been asking why BTC is still sideways here. Is it going to drop further? The real reason is quite simple: January is a month full of variables. Large funds are waiting for answers, so no one dares to act rashly.

Let me outline these key dates in January for you. Once you understand them, you'll see why everyone is holding back now.

**January 1st Spot ETF Launch** — This is a watershed event. Many thought that the positive news would lead to a sharp rise, but in reality, it's quite the opposite. This means BTC has shifted from a retail sentiment game to an institutional standard asset, fundamentally changing its capital attributes. So in the short term, it’s more likely to first digest the sentiment before finding a direction. One candlestick alone can't handle such a level of transition.

**January 9th was especially critical** — The nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chair and the US December unemployment rate were announced simultaneously. The key signals that day were twofold: Is the Fed really leaning dovish? Has the US economy truly cooled down? If the Fed is dovish and economic data weakens, risk assets will rebound collectively; conversely, if the stance is hawkish or data is too strong, crypto prices will be suppressed.

**January 13th CPI Data** — This is the real watershed for the entire January. If CPI continues to cool, market expectations for rate cuts will surge, benefiting the crypto prices; but if CPI rebounds, all risk assets will come under pressure. Currently, BTC is not looking at internal crypto market factors but purely at the outlook of US dollar liquidity expectations.

**January 15th Korea Central Bank Rate Decision** — Many overlook this, but its impact is significant. It relates to the liquidity of the Korean won trading pairs and indirectly affects the capital flow in Asian markets.

So what you're seeing now isn't a lack of logic in BTC, but large funds are waiting for these answers before acting. That’s why the market is sideways, and it’s also why patience is needed.

BTC1.17%

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probably_nothing_anon

· 14h ago

Ah, it's the same old story. Basically, just waiting for the Federal Reserve's move. I'm tired of it.

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MEVictim

· 14h ago

Basically, it's just waiting for the Federal Reserve's stance; everything else is just clouds.

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RugPullSurvivor

· 14h ago

To be honest, January was indeed busy, but I think big funds are still waiting for what, it feels like they're betting on the Federal Reserve. CPI that day was the real watershed, everything else was just a prelude, I agree with that.

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SchrodingerGas

· 14h ago

It's quite clear, but to be honest... I'm a bit tired of the phrase "big funds are holding back." According to game theory equilibrium logic, since the information is so public, are they really waiting for these specific data points? Or rather, on-chain funds are observing, waiting to see who will be the first to show weakness.

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OvertimeSquid

· 15h ago

Alright, listening to your explanation, I really see the bigger picture now and feel that I was too hasty before. Honestly, I was on edge that day during the CPI release; it was truly a watershed moment. Wait, I haven't paid much attention to the South Korean central bank; I didn't realize they could influence things indirectly like this. That's eye-opening. Institutional entry is like this—short-term, it can actually be more torturous for retail investors' mindset. You're right about that. January was so packed with variables that it was almost ridiculous. No wonder the big players are holding back and not making moves.

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