Institutional forecasts latest spark market attention—by 2026, the scale of rate cuts may be far less optimistic than expected. Meanwhile, liquidity has been compressed to an extreme state, and technicals are accumulating energy.

The signals released by the dot plot are worth pondering. The entire year may only see symbolic rate cuts, which sharply contrast with the currently highly tense technical landscape. Key support is around 3010, with a defensive line below at 2980. Dense liquidation zones hang overhead, and any breakout in either direction could trigger intense volatility.

Wall Street research institutions are divided. Some shout "zero rate cuts," while others are optimistic about "two rate cuts," reflecting the complexity of the macro situation. The FOMC meeting at the end of January is approaching, which will be the first opportunity to test expectations against reality.

When macro uncertainty is high and liquidity is severely compressed, the market stands at a crossroads. Can an upward breakout open room for gains? Can a downward retest complete accumulation and layout? The answers will be revealed in the coming weeks.