The 2025 global asset rankings have been completely rewritten — gold surged by 64%, leading by a wide margin, while Bitcoin lagged with a -6% decline. This is not a small fluctuation; it’s the first time in recorded history that gold has fully outperformed Bitcoin in annual performance. What has happened to the market landscape?

Starting from the October peak of $126,000, Bitcoin has already retraced over 20%, breaking below the psychological threshold of $100,000. With price, momentum, and sentiment pressures stacking up, Bitcoin has rightfully entered the traditional bear market zone. Once seemingly invincible as a crypto asset, it now faces the reality of "asset allocation."

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s bear markets in history are not a single pattern. Data shows that cyclical bear markets typically see an average decline of 84% and last about 2.5 years. Short-term correction bear markets usually see declines around 36% and last much shorter—about 2 months, followed by a 3-month recovery. In 2018, 2022, and now 2025, Bitcoin has been among the worst performers in major assets. History doesn’t simply repeat itself, but this recurring rhythm is somewhat intriguing.

What’s even more painful is Q4. In 2025, Bitcoin dropped 23.07% in Q4, compared to an average Q4 gain of 77.07% in history. This is the second-worst Q4 performance on record, only surpassed by Q4 2018. Ethereum fell 28.28% during the same period, marking the fourth-worst year-end performance. Those relying on holiday market trends and year-end rebounds were completely disappointed in 2025.

Even more worth pondering is that the long-observed "four-year cycle" pattern seems to have failed. Bitcoin ended 2025 with a final decline of -6.28%, breaking its previously relatively stable rhythm of rises and falls. Heatmap analysis makes it clear — the gains at the beginning of the year were completely offset by the sharp decline in Q4, as if nothing had happened.

This reveals a key point: when the market shifts, no asset can rise forever, and no cycle pattern can always hold. The real test is whether you can identify your position within the cycle and stay sufficiently clear-headed amid volatility. Bitcoin, from being the chosen one to the bottom performer, took just one year. Asset allocation isn’t about choosing to believe in a particular asset, but about understanding what the market favors at different times.