Speaking of the bull and bear market signals for BTC, there is actually a fairly mature system in place. NUPL (On-chain Unrealized Profit and Loss Ratio) is one of the most critical indicators within this system.

How is this indicator used? Simply put—once NUPL turns red, it’s basically a signal that a bear market is coming. The orange zone is more subtle; it often hovers at the boundary between bull and bear markets, possibly the night before a bear market or the tail end of one. The yellow zone acts like a "transition room" for the market, where sentiment and valuation repeatedly test each other until the market makes a final decision.

The problem is, looking at current data, NUPL hasn't even entered the yellow zone. What does this mean? Based on the structure of on-chain unrealized profit and loss, the market hasn't yet completed the typical bear market confirmation process.

So my view remains unchanged: at this stage, it’s not appropriate to say the market is accelerating into a bull, nor is it already in a bear market. Rather than calling it a recession, it’s better to see it as digesting at high levels and restructuring. The market is doing its homework, accumulating strength, but hasn't revealed its hand yet.

Before NUPL actually provides a clear signal of zone switching, I won’t rush to define this phase as a "full bear market." This is a cautious attitude based on data and also a sign of respecting the market.