2026-01-02 13:23:19

The depreciation of the US dollar combined with rate cuts and balance sheet expansion directly pushed up dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals. This round of price increases is strongly correlated with the dollar's weakness and can usually last about ten years.

The mechanism is actually not complicated. When the dollar depreciates, central banks around the world, in order to protect foreign exchange reserves, start selling US bonds and increasing gold holdings, which pushes gold prices higher. Meanwhile, explosive growth in industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and AI has led to a sharp surge in demand for metals like silver, copper, tungsten, antimony, and lithium carbonate. The problem is that capacity expansion takes time, and in the short term, supply cannot keep up, leading to a widening supply gap and naturally driving prices higher.

So, is it too late to say that non-ferrous metals have already risen too much and have peaked? It's still too early. Looking ahead five years, these strategic metals will still maintain an upward trend, and investing in related listed companies might actually be a good strategy.

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MoonRocketman

· 6h ago

The depreciation of the US dollar coincides with the launch window, which is the fuel replenishment period for base metals to take off. The supply gap is like a gravitational resistance level; prices need to break through upwards. Ten-year cycle? Based on RSI momentum, it’s far from peaking. The judgment that the five-year trend remains upward is a bit conservative. The Bollinger Bands are still wide. The real issue lies in the Fibonacci angle where production capacity cannot keep up with demand. That is the key variable determining the escape velocity of prices. Now, buying the dip in strategic metal listed companies is like adding fuel before the best launch window, waiting for the orbital breakthrough moment. Talking about the top? Ha, that’s because you haven’t understood the difference between a gravitational pullback and the main upward wave. Setting stop-loss levels properly means you’re not afraid of volatility.

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TokenDustCollector

· 6h ago

Really, whenever the dollar depreciates, the whole world follows and rises. I'm already tired of this logic. The key issue is still the lack of production capacity; the demand for chips and AI is essentially a bottomless pit.

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AirdropHunterKing

· 6h ago

Bro, I give full marks for this logic. It's the same principle as our airdrop farming. When supply can't meet demand, it has to go up. A ten-year cycle? Definitely. I'm optimistic about this wave.

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MoneyBurner

· 6h ago

I need to build a position in this wave, the logic behind the supply gap is brilliant. Just shouting slogans is useless; you need to watch the on-chain fund movements. Now is the time to fight hard. A ten-year cycle? Bro, your prediction is too conservative. I bet five years to double. The strategy of selling US bonds and increasing gold holdings—central banks are playing this game, what are retail investors still hesitating for? If production capacity can't keep up, then just wait to be slaughtered. Anyway, I've already ambushed a few lithium mining stocks.

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ApeWithNoChain

· 6h ago

Ten years of maintenance? This guy is a bit optimistic. Will the Federal Reserve really devalue honestly for that long?

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