2025-12-27 09:22:50

Entering Q4 2025, Bitcoin once soared to $126,000, setting a new all-time high, and the market was buzzing with the nickname "Uptober Carnival." But the show didn't last long—on October 10, a crash changed everything. Over $19 billion in leveraged positions were instantly liquidated, Bitcoin plummeted 30% from its peak, and it is now repeatedly testing below $90,000.

In response, analyst Ali Martinez offered a rather impactful judgment: this bear market may have only just begun. According to historical cycle patterns, Bitcoin's bear adjustment cycle typically lasts around 364 days. Based on this, the bottom could appear around October 2026, with the price potentially dropping to $37,500.

However, another voice cannot be ignored. With institutional funds entering the market, ETF products becoming more widespread, and policy environments improving, some believe that Bitcoin may no longer strictly follow the traditional four-year cycle, and its future trajectory remains full of uncertainties.

BTC0.37%

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gas_guzzler

· 7h ago

$19 billion directly evaporated, this is called market education, really --- 37,500? Dream on, institutions won't let it fall that deep --- Is the historical cycle theory still effective now? Feels like there are too many variables --- That liquidation wave on October 10th was truly incredible, all leverage traders exploded --- No, why does someone always say a bear market is coming, then it rebounds? --- Institutional entry has changed the game, the cycle theory might really be outdated --- From 126,000 to 90,000, a 30% plunge like a roller coaster, mental state is about to collapse --- This guy from Alibaba is too pessimistic, Bitcoin's resilience isn't that bad --- It's already 2025 and you're still stuck in the four-year cycle? Wake up, everyone

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staking_gramps

· 7h ago

190 billion clearing evaporated overnight, this is the consequence of playing with leverage Is the bear market just beginning? Then I better stock up on supplies Institutional entry has changed the game rules, the old cycle is already dead That wave on October 10 really scared me, almost got out with my skin 3.75 million? Dream on, let's talk about rebounding to 120,000 first It's the same old cycle theory, not enough times being slapped in the face? "Full of uncertainties" means no one knows, don't bluff me Leverage is meant to be deadly, spot traders stay steady and sleep well

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 7h ago

$19 billion directly evaporated, is this what I mean by "institutional entry means stability"? I've seen too many liquidation events caused by leverage. The cycle theory sounds very appealing, but it's actually just armchair analysis after the fact. $37,500? I doubt it. The new rules have been written long ago. ETFs change the game, but we haven't even figured out what the new rules look like yet. The liquidation robot doesn't care about historical cycles; it only cares about harvesting.

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RegenRestorer

· 7h ago

$19 billion in settlements, have all the leeks been harvested this time? --- $37,500? Is this guy serious? --- Institutions changing the rules? Ha, I just want to see how far they can go. --- Falling from 126,000 to 90,000 isn't enough, now they want to try 37,500? --- The four-year cycle has failed, so we retail investors can't play at all. --- Uptober frenzy, but October 10th turned into a slaughterhouse. --- Will the arrival of ETFs change our fate? I think it's doubtful.

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FarmToRiches

· 7h ago

Leverage liquidation moments are really satisfying, 19 billion just disappeared like that Will 37,500 really be reached? Feels uncertain Institutions have changed the rules, the four-year cycle might need to be rewritten I actually didn't buy the dip during the October 10th wave, lost a lot Bitcoin is really mischievous, predicting it is even less reliable than checking the weather forecast

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