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Capital Flows: In 2025, over 60% of institutional funds will flow into Bitcoin, Ethereum will account for 25%, and altcoins will make up less than 15%. BlackRock's IBIT assets will surpass $40 billion, and Fidelity's FBTC institutional clients will increase their share to 62%.
Market Impact: Institutional holdings will reach 24%, with Bitcoin at 31% and Ethereum at 19%. Derivatives market deleveraging will occur, with perpetual contract leverage ratios decreasing to 3x, and spot holdings increasing to 68%.
II. Regulatory and Compliance Developments
EU DAC8 Directive: Effective from January 1, 2026, requiring crypto service providers to report user information and transaction data to tax authorities.
Russian Exchanges: Moscow Exchange and St. Petersburg Exchange are ready to launch cryptocurrency trading, with a maximum annual investment limit of 300,000 rubles for retail investors.
III. Ethereum Technical Upgrades
Glamsterdam Fork: In 2026, parallel processing will be implemented, gas limits increased to 200 million, and validators will shift towards verifying zero-knowledge proofs (ZK).
Hegota Fork: Expected to accommodate over 72 data blocks per block, enhancing Layer 2 transaction processing capacity.
IV. Market Forecasts and Risks
Pantera Prediction: Quantum panic may occur in 2026, prompting institutions to discuss quantum emergency plans. Tokenized gold trading volume will grow, becoming a main asset for RWA promotion.
Messari Report: In 2026, cryptocurrencies will shift from "speculation" to "system-level integration." Bitcoin's "currency narrative" remains solid, while debates over ETH persist.