Mid-December Market Observation

After the Christmas season, the crypto market tends to become lively. Looking back at past patterns, the post-holiday trend is usually either sideways or upward, with few significant pullbacks. This time is no exception—market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year are becoming more solid, coupled with ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Everyone is holding onto their coins tightly, which in itself labels the market as "holding premium."

From a technical perspective, the monthly and weekly charts are both hovering near key support levels, indicating a sideways accumulation phase. As long as any positive news or minor developments occur, breaking upward is almost certain. We should keep a close eye on this period around the year-end.

Let's look at the current specific trend. $BTC has been oscillating and consolidating since the 19th, testing within a large range. The hourly chart shows a short-term upward trend, with the latest candlestick being a bullish (positive) candle, and the price approaching previous key highs. On the technical indicators side, the hourly MACD's red histogram continues to grow, indicating bullish momentum is building, but caution is needed for potential bearish divergence at high levels. The hourly RSI is around 68, approaching overbought territory, so a short-term correction may occur. The daily RSI is neutral to slightly bullish. Regarding moving averages, the hourly EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 are all in a bullish alignment, with the price firmly above the MAs. Short-term support is around 87,800, and resistance depends on whether the price can break through 90,600 effectively.

Current strategy reference:
#比特币与黄金战争 Long positions in the 87,900-88,900 range targeting 89,900-90,400
$BTC Long positions in the 2,900-2,940 range targeting 3,020-3,060

Market conditions change rapidly, so it’s essential to adjust strategies flexibly based on real-time candlestick and capital flow changes.