2025-12-26 07:23:58

$BTC $ETH 穆迪首席经济学家最新预测来了：美联储明年会进行降息，但不会激进。关键是这个字——"渐进、谨慎"，大规模流动性短期内不太现实。

为什么这么保守？通胀还在2.7%的位置，距离2%目标还差那么一点。听起来不远，但对决策层来说这就是制约。

这意味着什么呢？加密市场短期得适应流动性温和的节奏。比特币在9万美金附近反复试探，就是在这种"降息但慢慢来"的预期里摇摆。市场可能继续洗盘，甚至用这个预期制造波动。

但这不是坏事。翻翻2023年的行情记录，降息预期那时候也是摇摇欲坠，市场在满是质疑的环境里颠簸。结果呢？比特币从2.5万涨到了4.4万。政策的大方向比具体节奏值钱得多——只要降息这个方向确定了，行情的底层逻辑就还站得住。

现在散户怎么办？

拿住比特币和以太坊现货，别在震荡里被吓出去。有机会的时候分批小额布局，但绝对别一把梭。高倍合约这种东西在政策不确定期特别危险，分分钟被来回收割。

牛市从来都在分歧中爬行。当大家都失耐心的时候，机会常常在角落里蓄势。

BTC1.24%

ETH1.36%

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MoneyBurnerSociety

· 4h ago

It's another case of "gradual and cautious," just hearing it makes me sleepy. Still the same approach: as long as the rate cut direction is correct, the exact timing doesn't really matter. My experience is that the longer you wait, the more you lose. Instead of stressing over the timing, it's better to hold onto spot assets and take a long nap.

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SleepyValidator

· 4h ago

Lowering interest rates is like boiling a frog in lukewarm water; we have to endure it slowly. It's the same old story of accumulating spot positions and contracts being dead pits. I'm sick of this routine. I was completely washed out in 2023, but this time I will hold on no matter what, or I'll smash my keyboard. Gradual rate cuts? Fine, then I'll also gradually increase my positions. Take it slow, no rush. Inflation at 2.7% is stuck here. The Federal Reserve is really stingy. This is a gamble on our patience.

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FadCatcher

· 4h ago

It's the same old "gradual rate cuts" tune again. Enough already. Isn't it clear that the market, which repeatedly tests the 90,000 USD level, isn't enough? How long will this washout trend continue? I'm truly amazed. Now, stay away from leverage in contracts. Someone got liquidated again yesterday. It's painful just to watch. That wave in 2023 indeed pushed prices from 25,000 to 44,000, but can the environment be the same now? With the policy window so narrow, short-term volatility is likely to continue. Just hold onto spot assets. Don't engage in suicidal contract trading here. I don't know if opportunities are hiding in the corners, but those who show their heads have all been harvested. Is the rate cut direction confirmed and stable? I doubt it. It depends on real actions from the US side.

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GigaBrainAnon

· 4h ago

The rate cuts are slow, and this market trend indeed requires patience.

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TopBuyerBottomSeller

· 4h ago

It's the same pattern of rate cuts but happening slowly again, still need to hold on --- Trying 90,000 repeatedly is indeed tough, but the 2023 wave also went through this, as long as the rate cut direction remains unchanged --- Don't tell me about gradual caution; the contract folks are waiting for this kind of expected kill --- It sounds like liquidity is cooling down, but the underlying logic is still there; however, this shakeout might be more intense than expected --- To put it simply, keep holding spot, don't play with high leverage, that's all --- From 25,000 to 44,000 in 2023, now around 90,000, the logic still supports a run --- When everyone is anxious, that's often the starting point; I've seen too many cycles like this before --- This kind of swinging market is easiest to be harvested; stay calm and steady

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