#美联储降息 Technical Review for December 26, 2025

【Yesterday’s Recap】
The core view on December 25 was very clear: unless the price can find support at the 86600 level and generate bullish signals again, it’s best to stay on the sidelines. The judgment at that time was bearish — even if there was a rebound, it was just providing a better shorting opportunity for the bears.

And what happened? Last night, the price indeed dropped sharply, briefly reaching around 86900, then surged back up to 89000. This rally was a bit sudden, especially fierce at 11 o’clock, but I still chose to observe without rushing to short. By this morning, after this long bullish candle appeared, the situation became even more worth analyzing.

【Key Questions】
Is this rally real? Or is it another trap to lure in longs? During this period of oscillation, the manipulative tricks of the big players have been endless — baiting with false signals to buy or sell, confusing retail traders.

【Today’s Judgment Criteria】
My bullish conditions are actually simple:

**Condition 1**: The price must hold steady above the 87800 support line today. As long as it doesn’t break below, we can generally confirm the start of an upward trend. A short-term dip below but then recovery doesn’t count as a break.

**Condition 2**: A genuine breakout above 89400, especially reaching 89900. This directly reflects the true intention of the bulls.

Meeting either condition, I lean towards bullish or sideways upward movement.

【Retail Trader Operation Suggestions】
Both shorting at high levels and buying at low levels are possible, the key is to set stop-losses properly.

If the price cannot even break through 89400, let alone 89900, wait for a clear bearish signal before trying a small short position. Losses are not scary; after a loss, the next step is naturally to buy on dips, which also strengthens resolve.

If the price encounters resistance and falls back, use 87800 as a defensive bottom. Try a small long position around 88000, with a stop-loss set below 87800 (adjust according to your risk tolerance). As long as it stays above 87800, wait for the order of the rally to be reestablished. Even if it ultimately fails to resume the upward trend, catching a rebound isn’t too bad.

If you have ideas, let’s discuss.