Radian Group Stock Holds Steady Ground as KB&W Affirms Neutral Stance on RDN

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods issued a fresh assessment on December 18, 2025, reaffirming its neutral outlook on Radian Group (NYSE: RDN), signaling neither aggressive buying nor selling pressure at current levels. This measured stance aligns with cautious optimism in the sector.

Price Target Signals Modest Room for Growth

Analysts tracking Radian Group see potential upside, with the consensus one-year price objective standing at $39.78 per share as of early December 2025. Projections span a wide range—from $35.35 on the conservative end to $47.25 at the bullish extreme—reflecting divergent views on the company’s trajectory. Relative to the latest closing price of $36.98, this represents approximately 7.57% upside potential, offering investors incremental appreciation opportunities. The variance in forecasts suggests uncertainty persists around execution and market conditions.

Revenue expectations show headwinds, with projections declining 23.78% to reach 971 million dollars. Non-GAAP earnings per share are anticipated at 2.66, indicating the market remains focused on adjusted profitability metrics amid operational challenges.

Institutional Money Watching Closely

A total of 750 institutional investors and funds maintain active positions in Radian Group, marking a modest expansion as six additional holders entered the stock during the recent quarter—a 0.81% increase in institutional participation. The aggregate fund weighting dedicated to RDN stands at 0.20% of typical portfolios, up 5.13%, suggesting gradual accumulation despite mixed signals.

However, the trend reveals nuance. Total shares held by institutions contracted by 3.18% over three months to 158.184 million shares, indicating selective trimming even as new participants joined. The put/call ratio of 0.39 leans bullish, with call buyers outnumbering put buyers—a sign traders expect near-term strength.

How Major Shareholders Are Positioning

iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) commands the largest stake at 6.618 million shares, representing 4.88% ownership with no quarter-over-quarter adjustment, maintaining its commitment to passive small-cap exposure.

LSV Asset Management holds 5.975 million shares (4.41% of the company), but pared back from the prior 6.108 million—a 2.22% reduction. The firm also trimmed its RDN allocation weight by 7.20% sequentially, suggesting deliberate portfolio rebalancing.

Charles Schwab Investment Management owns 5.896 million shares (4.35% stake), essentially flat versus prior holdings of 5.893 million shares (up 0.06%). Interestingly, despite negligible share count movement, the firm cut its percentage allocation by 7.14%, likely due to broader portfolio restructuring.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) decreased its RDN position from 4.613 million to 4.310 million shares—a 7.05% pullback representing 3.18% ownership. The fund’s RDN weighting fell 9.22%, reflecting index-driven rebalancing as Radian Group’s market cap adjusted.

Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) bucked the trimming trend, increasing holdings from 3.961 million to 4.253 million shares—a 6.86% expansion. This dividend-focused fund amplified its RDN allocation by 14.97%, viewing the stock’s yield as attractive relative to risk.

The Takeaway

Radian Group presents a mixed institutional backdrop. While new money continues trickling in and dividend-focused buyers are adding, established value managers are pruning exposure. The analyst community sees modest upside in the stock, but revenue pressure and selective institutional retreat warrant caution. Investors should monitor whether the dividend attraction can offset operational headwinds in quarters ahead.