Corn Contracts Rally from Overnight Lows but Settle Lower on Export Caution

Corn futures staged a modest recovery during Monday’s session after testing early weakness, though nearby contracts ultimately finished in the red with losses of 1-2 cents. The pullback reflects mixed signals in the export market despite stronger sales bookings, as traders weighed USDA shipment data and positioning shifts by large speculators.

Price Action and Cash Market Pressure

Cash corn retreated a penny to settle at $3.95 nationally, mirroring the contract weakness. Front-month March 2026 futures closed at $4.39 3/4 with a 1-cent decline, while May and July contracts posted larger losses of 1 1/4 cents, settling at $4.47 3/4 and $4.53 3/4 respectively. The intraday bounce—where prices pulled off their session lows—suggests some technical support, but sellers remained in control as the day wound down.

Export Momentum Builds Despite Weekly Dips

A private export sale of 150,320 MT was logged to unidentified buyers, adding to the broader export activity. USDA export shipments totaled 1.589 MMT (62.32 mbu) during the week ending December 11, marking a 9.07% decrease from the prior week but substantially outpacing year-ago levels by 37.25%. Mexico dominated destination rankings with 488,231 MT, followed by Japan at 301,240 MT and Spain taking 219,729 MT.

The 2025/26 marketing year has seen cumulative exports reach 22.501 MMT (885.84 mbu) since September 1, representing a significant 68.74% jump versus the same period last year. Additional USDA data showed 71,917 MT of sorghum heading to China.

Sales Bookings Exceed Expectations

Export sales bookings released this morning tallied 1.84 MMT of corn for the week of November 20, landing at the upper range of pre-report expectations of 1.1-2.2 MMT. While this represented a sequential decline from the previous week, it still reflected 73.4% growth compared to the same week in 2024, underscoring sustained international demand despite price pressure.

Managed Money Flips to Net Short Position

Updated CFTC positioning data revealed a significant shift in speculative activity, with managed money funds flipping to a net short of 10,872 contracts for the week ending November 25. This repositioning marked a substantial 48,999-contract swing to the short side, suggesting that large traders are becoming more defensive amid the current price environment and uncertain market dynamics.