China Trade Momentum Sustains Soybean Decline at Midday

Soybean futures retreated during midday trading, with prices sliding 4 to 6 cents across the board. The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price fell 4 1/2 cents to settle at $10.49 1/2 per bushel. In contrast, Soybean Meal futures gained 20 cents to reach $1.30, while Soy Oil futures climbed 75 points higher.

Trade Fulfillment Accelerates

Treasury Secretary Bessent’s recent comments regarding China’s soybean purchase commitments have shifted market expectations. According to the official statement, China is tracking ahead of schedule to complete its promised agricultural acquisitions. Through USDA’s Export Sales tracking system, confirmed purchases now stand at 2.25 MMT out of the 12 MMT total commitments. Rather than waiting until year-end as initially projected by administration officials, these obligations are now anticipated to be fulfilled by the end of February.

Market Activity and Positioning

Overnight, 3 delivery notices were posted against December Soybean Meal contracts, while 128 notices were recorded for December Bean Oil. Speculative traders moved decisively on Tuesday, accumulating 37,720 contracts on the long side during the week of October 21, primarily through short-covering activity. This repositioning raised their net long exposure to 35,329 contracts.

Forward Guidance and Expected Sales

The USDA is scheduled to release a backlog of Export Sales data on Thursday. Market participants anticipate soybean bookings in the range of 0.4 to 2 MMT for the week ending October 30. Initial Chinese purchases—with 100,000 MT already documented in that same period—should become visible in the weekly report. Soybean Meal sales expectations range between 50,000 and 450,000 MT, while Soy Oil allocations are projected at 5,000 to 25,000 MT.

Contract Performance Across Maturities

January 26 Soybeans declined 4 1/4 cents to $11.20 1/2. Nearby cash positions closed at $10.49 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents. March 26 Soybeans retreated 4 1/2 cents to $11.30 1/2, while May 26 Soybeans lost 5 1/4 cents, settling at $11.39 1/2.