Why Quantum Computing Stocks May Face a Valuation Reckoning: IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and QUBT Under Scrutiny

The Warning Sign Hidden in Plain Sight

The quantum computing sector has captured investor imagination like few technologies before it. In the 12 months through early December 2025, pure-play quantum computing operators—including IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc.—delivered eye-catching returns of 68%, 333%, 568%, and 89% respectively.

Yet beneath these impressive gains lies a troubling metric that historically precedes market corrections. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, a tool that has consistently identified unsustainable valuations across multiple technology cycles, is now flashing red for the entire quantum computing sector.

The Valuation Metric That Predicted Previous Tech Collapses

When assessing young, unprofitable companies with explosive growth potential, traditional valuation methods fall short. The price-to-earnings ratio requires positive earnings—a luxury most quantum computing firms don’t yet possess. The PEG ratio, which incorporates growth forecasts, also struggles without a meaningful earnings baseline.

Enter the price-to-sales metric. By dividing market capitalization by trailing 12-month revenue, this measure captures valuation without depending on profitability. History demonstrates that P/S ratios exceeding 30 rarely sustain themselves across market cycles.

Before the dot-com collapse in March 2000, titans like Microsoft, Amazon, and Cisco Systems commanded price-to-sales multiples above 30—some even surpassing 40. The subsequent bust proved that such valuations were temporary phenomena, not permanent features of transformative technology.

Current Quantum Computing Valuations: Numbers That Don’t Align With Reality

As of December 12, 2025, the quantum computing landscape reveals extreme valuation disparities:

• IonQ: P/S ratio of 156
• Rigetti Computing: P/S ratio of 992
• D-Wave Quantum: P/S ratio of 315
• Quantum Computing Inc.: P/S ratio of 3,144

These figures underscore how nascent the commercial stage remains for these enterprises. For skeptics who suspect data cherry-picking, examining forward revenue projections through 2027 yields a more complete picture:

Based on consensus Wall Street forecasts for 2027 estimated sales:

• IonQ: Projected P/S of 55.9
• Rigetti Computing: Projected P/S of 177.7
• D-Wave Quantum: Projected P/S of 122.6
• Quantum Computing Inc.: Projected P/S of 270.1

Even accounting for double or triple-digit annual revenue expansion, these multiples would remain substantially above the historical 30-level threshold. This suggests that achieving sustainable valuation normalization would require either dramatic revenue acceleration or significant market cap compression—or both.

The Commercialization Timeline Problem

Quantum computing stocks face another headwind grounded in historical precedent: the extended maturation curves required for transformative technologies. The internet served as a proof-of-concept for more than five years before the dot-com bubble inflated—and ultimately burst. During this interval, adoption exceeded businesses’ ability to optimize the technology for meaningful profit generation.

The same pattern has repeated with genome sequencing, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain infrastructure, and the metaverse. In each case, investors underestimated the time required for technologies to mature from theoretical potential to practical implementation.

Currently, quantum computing hardware lacks demonstrated problem-solving utility for widespread commercial applications. More tellingly, no evidence suggests that substantial corporate investments in quantum solutions have generated measurable profitability for the investing companies. We’re witnessing an identical cycle unfold.

What Historical Parallels Suggest for 2026

While the P/S ratio cannot pinpoint the exact timing of market reversals, historical patterns suggest 2026 could deliver substantial headwinds for quantum computing equities. The technology sector has witnessed multiple cycles where market enthusiasm preceded commercialization reality by years—sometimes decades.

However, history offers a counterbalance to this warning. Despite the internet bubble’s devastating 49% and 78% declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite respectively, numerous internet-era businesses ultimately rewarded patient investors with extraordinary returns. Companies that survived the shakeout became generational winners.

The same outcome remains possible for quantum computing. With appropriate long-term perspective—measuring success in five to ten-year windows rather than quarterly performance—some of these pure-play operators may eventually justify their current valuations or beyond. The critical distinction involves recognizing that sustainable stock appreciation requires meaningful progress toward commercial viability, not merely the existence of theoretical market opportunity.

Investors should temper near-term expectations accordingly, understanding that transformative technology adoption follows a predictable but often disappointing timeline. The quantum computing sector’s eventual success and the stock prices of its leading participants remain plausible, but expecting uninterrupted gains without tangible commercialization milestones represents a bet against a century of market history.