When Should You Buy D-Wave Quantum? The Breakeven Question Every Investor Must Answer

The Paradox Behind D-Wave’s Stock Rally

D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) has captured investor imagination as a quantum computing pioneer, and the numbers show it. Since the beginning of 2025, the stock has surged nearly threefold, yet just weeks earlier in mid-October, it had climbed 450% for the year. This dramatic reversal—with the stock shedding 39% of its value in just seven weeks—raises a critical question: Are investors reassessing their confidence in this quantum computing company’s future?

The company markets itself as “a leader in the development and delivery of quantum computing systems, software, and services,” and bulls have been willing to overlook mounting losses in favor of the long-term growth narrative. But beneath the surface lies a troubling pattern that deserves closer examination.

A Closer Look at D-Wave’s Capital Strategy

Last month, D-Wave presented warrant holders with a take-it-or-lose-it proposition. Holders had to exercise warrants to purchase shares at $11.50 each, or watch the company redeem those warrants for just $0.01 apiece. The outcome was predictable: approximately 95% of warrant holders capitulated. This resulted in 4.7 million warrants being exercised, generating 6.9 million new shares and raising $54.6 million for the company.

While this offering diluted existing shareholders by roughly 2%, it expanded D-Wave’s cash reserves to approximately $850 million (net of debt). At the company’s current cash consumption rate of about $55 million annually, this provides a 15-year financial runway. On paper, that’s a substantial cushion—one that, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, positions D-Wave approximately five years away from achieving its first GAAP net profit and generating positive cash flow in 2030.

The Math That Almost Makes Sense

By the analysts’ projections, D-Wave possesses enough capital to sustain operations and reach cash flow breakeven well before exhausting its reserves. If these forecasts hold, the company could eventually generate genuine profits. On the surface, this trajectory suggests D-Wave stock might ultimately reward patient investors.

Yet the math raises an uncomfortable question: If D-Wave truly has more cash than necessary and is genuinely on track to reach profitability, why does management continue issuing new equity so aggressively?

The Share Dilution Red Flag

This aggressive capital-raising approach has fundamentally transformed D-Wave’s shareholder base. Over the past four years, the company has expanded from barely 3 million shares outstanding to more than 350 million shares. While these capital infusions have bolstered the cash position, the data suggests D-Wave has accumulated substantially more capital than its projections indicate it will need.

This creates a uncomfortable logical gap: Either management doesn’t trust the analysts’ breakeven forecasts, or it has a different strategic agenda than simply preserving shareholder value. When a company with supposedly sufficient capital keeps issuing stock, it’s worth asking whether leadership is prioritizing near-term optionality over long-term shareholder returns.

The Breakeven Threshold as Investment Signal

So what would justify buying D-Wave Quantum stock at current levels? The most fundamental milestone would be straightforward: achieving breakeven cash flow. The company must generate sufficient cash to fund ongoing operations without requiring additional equity issuance. Only then would continuous share dilution cease, and shareholders could trust that future profit growth won’t be fragmented among ever-expanding share counts.

Until D-Wave demonstrates the operational efficiency to sustain itself without diluting existing shareholders, the investment case remains compromised. The company’s long-term potential is undeniable, but the path forward requires management to prove it can reach profitability while respecting existing shareholders’ ownership stakes.

For investors weighing whether to enter or hold D-Wave Quantum stock, that breakeven milestone is the metric that matters most. Until it arrives, the fundamental tension between the company’s capital-raising habits and its purported financial health will remain difficult to ignore.