Screenshots of daily doubles are everywhere, but in a bull market, heroes often reveal their true colors in an instant when the market turns bearish. Those who have survived in the market understand that this is not about predicting tops and bottoms or betting on rebounds, but about relying on a set of long-term effective simple methods—only trading what you understand and making money with high certainty.

**Step 1: Choose the right coins, and you've already won half the battle**

Don’t be fooled by stories of "hundredfold altcoins." According to statistics, over 70% of the top 20 coins by market cap are淘汰ed within four years, and trash coins are even more likely to die. So, the logic for selecting coins should be:

Mainstream coins are always the core holdings. BTC and ETH account for 70% of the total portfolio; they represent the strongest consensus and a complete technical ecosystem. No matter how violently the market crashes, these leading coins have the genes for a rebound. As for emerging coins, only look at three things—do they have real use cases, is the team’s technical background solid, and is the code being continuously updated? Projects with even rough official websites can be directly passed.

There’s also a common pitfall: don’t use stock market "buying cheap" thinking to pick garbage coins. When a coin’s price hits the floor and rebounds, it’s often not a bullish signal but may be the last chance to cut the chives.

**Step 2: Enter with rhythm**

Many traders make decisions based on 15-minute K-line charts, ending up shaken out and doubting everything. It can be simpler—use the monthly chart to set the direction, and the daily chart to find specific entry points.

Only consider entering when the monthly MACD shows a golden cross. Historically, after BTC’s monthly MACD golden cross, it often trends for more than half a year. If there’s no signal, stay in cash and wait patiently; don’t rush to bet on rebounds. When a correction touches the 60-day moving average, add to your position gradually, especially if accompanied by increased volume, indicating that support is real. But if it breaks below the 70-day moving average, you must exit decisively—don’t try to fight the trend.

Another way to reduce risk is to dollar-cost average into BTC and ETH. Invest on a fixed date each month; during bear markets, this means accumulating at low prices, and when the bull market arrives, take profits as planned. Over eight years, this approach usually results in a lower average cost than 90% of the market.

**Step 3: Selling is more important than buying**

Set stop-losses quickly—don’t wait. Continuing to hold after breaking support only increases losses and is just gambling on an uncertain rebound. Have a plan for taking profits—don’t just sell everything when the market looks bad, but exit in batches based on risk-reward ratios. At the top of a bull market, sell in three batches: the first at key resistance levels, the second when sentiment is extremely optimistic, and the third to enjoy the final rally.

In short, surviving 8 years in this market depends on discipline. Don’t chase highs, don’t bottom-fish, don’t bet on directions; only act at the points with the highest certainty.