Core Outlook for the One-Week Market After 23 Billion Super Settlement

Key conclusion: The market is highly likely to continue the pattern of "sideways consolidation after settlement + trend reversal on Monday," focusing on the critical range of 85k-90k. Low liquidity during the Christmas holiday amplifies volatility; a breakout may trigger a 5%-7% directional move.

I. Core Logic

- Short-term sideways: During the Christmas holiday, European and American institutions exit the market, liquidity dries up, replicating the "narrow range oscillation from settlement to the Monday" pattern observed in November.

- Key direction: The battle between 85k (support) and 90k (resistance). Breakouts are unlikely to be false.

- Trend reversal window: January 29 (Monday), coinciding with year-end fund reallocation. Historically, after three major settlements, the market has initiated trends at this point.

II. Bull and Bear Variables

- Bullish drivers: Market makers closing 22,000 BTC to hedge shorts; the positive gamma at 90k is解除, easing upward resistance.

- Bearish pressure: Extreme market fear (index at 24), ETF fund outflows, and medium-term downtrend suppression.

III. One-Week Market Scenario

1. 12.26 (Settlement Day): Narrow oscillation between 87k-89k, possibly short-term anomalies but quickly corrected.

2. 12.27-28 (Weekend): Consolidation narrows to 86k-89k, awaiting fund return on Monday.

3. 12.29 (Monday): Trend reversal begins—stabilize above 90k to target 93k-95k; break below 85k to explore 80k-82k.

4. 12.30-31: Trend continues or slight pullback, year-end settlement amplifies tail-end volatility.

IV. Trading Tips

- Wait and see after settlement; act once the trend is clear.

- Breakthroughs of 85k/90k require confirmation of 4-hour stabilization and increased volume.

- Due to insufficient liquidity during the holiday, set wide stop-losses to manage risk.