2025-12-26 03:22:24

Market sentiment has suddenly shifted. The latest data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January has fallen to single digits—while the chance of no rate cut has surged to 88%. What does this turn mean for the crypto market?

From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's policy expectations directly influence the liquidity of risk assets. When expectations of rate cuts weaken, the market re-evaluates the attractiveness of high-yield assets (including mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, etc.).

In the short term, this may suppress risk appetite. But from another angle, if the rate cut cycle is truly delayed, it indicates that inflation control is gradually taking effect, which could be a positive signal for long-term holders—a more stable macro environment often favors asset valuation normalization.

The key is to pay attention to subsequent official statements from the Federal Reserve and economic data. Markets tend to be highly volatile at such policy turning points, but it is precisely during these moments that opportunities for strategic positioning are most likely to emerge.

BTC1.4%

ETH1.05%

SOL0.75%

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SatoshiHeir

· 2h ago

It should be pointed out that the figure of 88% is itself a false proposition. On-chain data shows that what truly determines the price of a coin is never the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, but the consensus on Bitcoin's scarcity. Let's return to the fundamental thinking of Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper: monetary policy is just noise, and the core technology is the signal. This is no coincidence. --- Here comes the macro rhetoric again about cutting leeks, hilarious. Does inflation control work? Wake up, M2 growth rate hasn't decreased at all. --- It is obvious that those who are hammered in the short term are often retail investors who haven't done their homework. The true hodlers have long seen through it — every turning point is the best time to get in. --- Everyone listen to me: The Federal Reserve can't beat Bitcoin's mathematical model. This confrontation started back in 2009. --- Wait, so should we run now or bottom fish? Can anyone give a definite answer... Help! --- According to the logic of the white paper, an extended inflation cycle is actually good for holding positions. But the premise is that you can hold your mindset — most people can't do that.

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MEVVictimAlliance

· 2h ago

Here we go again? 88% won't cut interest rates... I told you, this wave of the market has always been strange, and now it's even clearer. In the short term, it will definitely be tough, but in the long run, if inflation is truly under control, that's actually a good thing. The question is, can we afford to wait? That's the saying: the easiest opportunities appear during a crisis, it all depends on who dares to buy the dip.

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RektRecorder

· 2h ago

88% no rate cut? Brothers, you're about to get hit. Be mentally prepared in the short term.

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BlockchainDecoder

· 2h ago

88% of no interest rate cuts is quite aggressive. According to research, liquidity contraction often first hits risk assets, but the question is— is inflation really taking effect? It’s worth noting that such policy turning points often become window periods for institutional deployment; short-term panic may actually be a good opportunity for long-term positioning.

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