Lithium Market Thaw: Why Sigma Lithium's Stock Jumped 55% This Week

The Catalyst: Industry Giants Signal Price Recovery

This week saw a significant turn in market sentiment around lithium. The catalyst came from Ganfeng Lithium Group, the world’s second-largest lithium processor, when chairman Li Liangbin publicly stated that he expects lithium demand to surge 30-40% throughout 2026. More importantly, he projected lithium prices could climb to 150,000-200,000 yuan per ton in the coming year—a statement that immediately moved the needle across the entire sector.

The market reacted swiftly. Lithium prices jumped 9% on Monday alone, reaching 95,200 yuan per ton intraday and subsequently testing the 100,000 yuan per ton level by midweek. For Sigma Lithium (NASDAQ: SGML), a company with direct exposure to lithium mining operations across multiple Brazilian sites, the reversal in market tone translated into concrete gains—the stock rallied 55.1% through Thursday trading.

Wall Street Follows the Industry Narrative

The bullish momentum didn’t stop with commodity price action. By Wednesday, sell-side analysts at Canaccord Genuity raised their price target on Sigma Lithium, signaling growing confidence in a potential turnaround. The new target represents a substantial increase from where shares were trading at the start of the week, reflecting how quickly sentiment can shift when industry heavyweights hint at normalized pricing.

The Backdrop: A Two-Year Washout Sets Up the Setup

Understanding this week’s action requires context. Lithium has been in a prolonged bear market, with prices collapsing roughly 90% from their early 2023 peaks before this month’s partial recovery began. The decline stemmed from an EV market slowdown that crushed demand forecasts. However, with electric vehicles continuing to gain traction—particularly in China, a key growth engine—and lithium having spent nearly two years grinding lower, the technical and fundamental backdrop is beginning to resemble a potential inflection point.

Sigma Lithium, despite being down over 75% from its 2023 highs, now sits at levels that could represent value for investors with conviction in a multi-year EV cycle continuation. On the sum symbol level, the break above key resistance zones this week suggests institutional players are repositioning for a recovery scenario.

Mining Stocks Remain High-Volatility Plays

It’s crucial to recognize the structural risks. Mining stocks amplify underlying commodity price swings due to fixed operational costs and capital intensity. A prolonged downturn in lithium could reverse these gains just as quickly. However, after a two-year bear market has already done significant damage to valuations and sentiment has fully capitulated, the risk-reward picture has tilted meaningfully toward upside scenarios for patient investors willing to tolerate near-term volatility.

The question now isn’t whether lithium will recover—industry peers believe it will. The question is timing and magnitude.