What Really Matters for Celsius Holdings in 2026: The Organic Growth Test

The Acquisition Tailwind Won’t Last Forever

When you look at Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH) climbing 37% in 2025 — nearly double the S&P 500’s 16% gain — a significant portion of that rally rides on one pivotal deal. The company’s February announcement to acquire Alani Nu for $1.8 billion (effectively $1.65 billion after tax benefits) fundamentally reshaped its growth trajectory when the deal closed in Q2.

That acquisition wasn’t just any purchase. Alani Nu arrived as an ascending brand at precisely the moment when Celsius’ core business faced headwinds. More importantly, it opened the functional beverage market to a new consumer demographic — predominantly female-identifying drinkers — and it came at a valuation discount relative to Celsius’ own trading metrics and projected EBITDA multiples.

The Numbers Tell an Interesting Story

The revenue acceleration following Alani Nu’s integration speaks volumes. After three consecutive quarters of declining sales, Celsius delivered an 84% revenue jump in Q2 and a remarkable 173% surge in the most recent quarter. But here’s what separates the real story from the headline: earnings growth has substantially outpaced analyst expectations in back-to-back quarters, which wasn’t the initial playbook.

The original thesis assumed that adding Alani Nu’s lower-margin business would pressure profitability even as top-line numbers soared. Instead, Celsius has demonstrated operational leverage that surprised the Street. This distinction matters enormously when evaluating what comes next.

Spring 2026: When Fools Rush In (Or Don’t)

Heading into 2026, Wall Street models project Q1 revenue to spike 114% year-over-year — a number inflated by the simple fact that Alani Nu didn’t exist on the books during the first quarter of 2025. The Celsius flagship brand’s rebound will add additional tailwind. Collectively, consensus expects $3.2 billion in full-year 2026 revenue, implying roughly 32% annual growth.

But here’s the inflection point that separates the real believers from the fools watching spring unfold: Q2 2026 represents the first true apples-to-apples comparison. Both Celsius and Alani Nu will be full-quarter contributors in both 2025 and 2026. The “training wheels” of acquisition accounting disappear. Growth will need to come from organic momentum, market share gains, and the combined brand’s ability to expand within the functional beverage category.

The Momentum Argument Cuts Both Ways

The bull case is straightforward: Celsius maintains strong growth momentum, continues capturing market share, and demonstrates margin expansion despite integrating a lower-margin asset. If this pattern persists into Q2 2026, the stock could extend its outperformance.

The bear case is equally compelling: the 2026 spring quarter could reveal that much of the company’s recent acceleration was acquisition-driven rather than fundamentally driven. A deceleration in organic growth rates — even if absolute numbers remain positive — would force a significant revaluation.

That binary outcome is precisely what Celsius investors need to monitor as the calendar turns. The next 12 months will determine whether 2025’s performance was a beginning or merely a chapter in a larger story.