Market segmentation under multiple drivers: AUD hits new highs, precious metals face correction

U.S. Stock Futures Rise, Tech Stocks Lead the Gains

On December 4th, U.S. stock futures performed strongly before the market open, with the three major indices futures rising collectively. Dow Jones Index futures, S&P 500 Index futures, and Nasdaq 100 Index futures increased by 0.11%, 0.10%, and 0.11% respectively. Among tech stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) rose by 0.59%, Tesla (TSLA) gained 0.80%, and market sentiment remains optimistic. Rumors suggest that the Trump administration may issue an executive order related to robotics next year, creating speculative space for the future tech industry.

Dollar Declines for the 10th Consecutive Day, Employment Data in Focus

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its downward trend, falling by 0.02% as of press time, marking its tenth consecutive day of pressure. The market is focused on the upcoming release at 21:30 of the weekly initial jobless claims data, with an expectation of 220,000 claims. If the actual data exceeds expectations, it will further reinforce concerns about the U.S. employment market and put additional pressure on the dollar.

AUD/USD Reaches New Highs, Rate Hike Expectations Rise

Australia’s October household expenditure data showed strong performance, with the month-over-month increase reaching the highest since January 2024. This positive signal triggered a reassessment of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy stance. Based on currency market pricing, the probability of the RBA raising interest rates in May surged from 18% on Wednesday to 55%. Driven by this, the AUD/USD exchange rate(AUD/USD) briefly broke through 0.6619, hitting a nearly two-month high, making the Australian dollar the strongest currency of the day.

Silver Profit-Taking and Correction, Diverging Trends in Precious Metals

After reaching a new high the day before, silver prices came under pressure today, falling by 2.17% to $57.22 per ounce. Gold also adjusted downward, declining 0.25% to $4,192 per ounce. Industry analysts believe this correction is part of profit-taking. Germany’s Commerzbank’s medium-term outlook suggests a price of $59 per ounce, indicating limited upside for precious metals at present. Investors should pay attention to support levels for defense.

Japanese Yen Appreciates, Central Bank Rate Hike Signals Strengthen

According to Reuters, three Japanese government insiders revealed that the Bank of Japan may initiate a rate hike in December, with the government showing tolerance for such action. This clear signal directly boosted the yen exchange rate. USD/JPY(USD/JPY) fell by 0.20%, closing at 154.89, reflecting rapidly rising market expectations for the BOJ’s policy normalization.