XRP $1.87, Is a rebound a warning sign before breaking the 'psychological resistance'?… Dead cat bounce warning

• XRP is currently struggling to defend the $2.00 level, but the latest price of $1.87 suggests a deepening of the Q4 downtrend. - While $293 million is quietly flowing into the US spot XRP ETF, the contraction in the futures market vividly illustrates the ‘disparity between institutions and charts.’ - The failure to reclaim the 50-day EMA at $2.45, along with the ongoing death cross, is highly likely to turn any rebound into a risky dead cat bounce.

Even as the price hovers near $2.00, the signals from the chart are clear. XRP is at a critical crossroads, determining whether it will resume its upward trend or deepen its stagnation. An interesting point is the flow of institutional funds. Despite price fluctuations, accumulation through ETFs continues unabated. However, one dangerous signal cannot be overlooked: the simultaneous decline in the futures market and technical deterioration.

The ‘quiet movement’ of institutional funds and the ‘silence’ in futures… Is a full rebound still far off?

Recent data reveal an intriguing imbalance in supply and demand. Canera Capital’s XRPC and Bitwise’s XRP ETF have accumulated a total of $293 million since their listing on October 28, with no net outflows at all. Conservative institutions are risking altcoin exposure and bottoming out despite regulatory uncertainties.

The issue lies in the futures market. Since the October flash crash, XRP futures open interest(O) has remained around $3.79 billion, stuck in a state of calm. While spot buying continues, there is a lack of leverage demand capable of driving prices explosively higher. A true rebound signal only appears when both spot inflows and futures open interest increase simultaneously.

Technical indicators’ warning: death cross, inverse arrangement, and weakened momentum

The signals on the chart are even more serious. Currently, XRP candles are completely trapped below key moving averages:

• 50-day EMA: $2.45
• 100-day EMA: $2.57
• 200-day EMA: $2.54

Beyond simply being below these averages, the averages themselves are maintaining a downward slope. More concerning is the formation of a death cross where the 50-day EMA crosses below the 200-day EMA. This indicates a bearish signal where short-term trends cannot outperform long-term trends.

Auxiliary indicators also send strong warnings. MACD remains in a bearish zone below zero, and RSI is approaching oversold levels at 37, but the rebound energy is weak. This suggests investors are viewing this as a ‘selling opportunity’ rather than a ‘buying opportunity.’ Notably, the downward trendline originating from the $3.66 high remains a formidable resistance.

The dead cat bounce risk… Without a breakout above $2.45, all rebounds are just ‘traps’

To accurately interpret the current situation, we need to ask ‘what is lacking.’ Institutional funds and ETF inflows are positive, but technical resistance remains firm.

The first hurdle for a rebound is breaking through the $2.45 level where the 50-day EMA resides. Failing to hold this level would mean all upward movements are merely a ‘dead cat bounce’(a temporary rebound that cannot gain height). The second hurdle is $2.72, and ultimately, the journey toward the $3.66 high must begin.

$2.00 is a ‘psychological bottom’ but also a ‘temporary support.’ If this level breaks, a sharp decline toward the high $1s is highly likely.

Three conditions investors need to confirm

What is needed now is not a vague belief in institutional funds but a cold check of conditions:

First, is the support at $2.00 holding? If this level collapses, it could trigger a psychological breakdown.

Second, does futures open interest regain vitality? Institutional accumulation alone is insufficient. Leverage participation is necessary.

Third, does a daily close above $2.45 get confirmed? This is the real trigger for a genuine rebound. If this condition is not met, all upward movements are likely to be risky dead cat bounces.

In conclusion, breaking through $2.45 is not optional but essential for XRP. As ETF inflows send positive signals, conservative asset management remains the best approach until the chart confirms this with price action.