Yen plunges, crypto rebounds: A major market drama unfolds today

Market Overview: USD/JPY Plunges, Options Expiry Imminent

Today’s market is a bit unsettled. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, pushing the rate to 0.75%—the highest since 1995. Sounds hawkish, right? But Governor Ueda Kazuo’s comment “Next steps are to be determined” directly undermined market expectations, causing the USD/JPY exchange rate to plummet, down 1.05% to 157.09. In simple terms, the market isn’t craving rate hikes per se, but rather certainty.

The US stock market responded much more positively. Ahead of the open, Dow futures rose 0.14%, S&P 500 futures up 0.33%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.43%. Chip stocks led the rally, with NVIDIA(NVDA) up 1.36%, Tesla(TSLA) up 1.13%, and Oracle(ORCL) surging 5.95%, driven by TikTok trading optimism and OpenAI funding negotiations.

Main Event: The $70 Trillion “Triple Witching”

But the highlight today is the “Triple Witching”—a name that sounds intimidating but simply marks the day when a large volume of options expire. Goldman Sachs estimates that $7.1 trillion in notional value of options will expire today, with $5 trillion linked to the S&P 500. What does this mean? Market volatility will be significantly amplified, trading volume will spike, and whether the S&P 500 can hold the 6800 level may determine the next trend.

Cryptocurrency: Indirect Benefits from Yen Fluctuations

All of this is positive for cryptocurrencies. Although the BOJ raised rates, it did not provide a clear follow-up plan, reducing the risk of a hard landing and boosting risk appetite. Bitcoin(BTC) rose 2.91%, returning to $87.98K. Ethereum(ETH) performed even better, up 4.35%, surpassing $2.96K.

Worth noting, approximately $23 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire next Friday. Don’t underestimate this number—combined with today’s “Triple Witching” frenzy, next week’s market could be even more volatile than this week.

Precious Metals Divergence: Funds Shifting

Platinum has risen for the seventh consecutive day, up 0.66%, at $1962 per ounce, and palladium is also gaining strength. Gold, on the other hand, is somewhat soft, with slight declines. The logic is simple: gold has already reached historic highs, and some smart money is shifting toward undervalued, more elastic metals like platinum and palladium, indicating a clear sector rotation.

Ultimately, today’s market is digesting multiple layers of information—yen fluctuations, options expiry risks, crypto rebounds—all intertwined, suggesting that the coming days could be quite interesting.