Market trends are like life itself, filled with countless choices amid ups and downs. Bull markets bring celebration, bear markets lead alone, and those lingering unrealized losses on paper ultimately become nutrients that illuminate the way forward. Those who persist in waiting will eventually hear the market’s response in some cycle.

Recently, this wave of market movement has provided quite a clear validation of the bearish outlook. The early morning prediction of the range was almost perfectly aligned with the actual trend. Take BTC as an example—after surging past the 88,000 mark early in the morning, resistance gradually appeared. After peaking at 88,349, it retreated, and throughout the day, it remained under pressure. By evening, the price found support around 86,500, resulting in a slight rebound. When the US stock market opened, the bears gained strength again, pushing the price down to the intraday low of 86,355, before rebounding slightly. Currently, the market is oscillating around 87,300.

ETH’s rhythm is largely synchronized with BTC. The high point was 2,987 early in the morning, and the lowest dipped to 2,886 in the evening. Although the range isn’t as exaggerated as BTC’s, the trend remains consistent.

Because the intraday volatility isn’t large, opportunities for positioning increase accordingly. A total of 4 BTC short positions and 3 ETH short positions were executed, capturing a total of 2,337 points of profit. While no single trade yielded particularly spectacular returns, the high frequency made up for it. In fact, this kind of market rhythm tests both execution ability and risk control discipline.

Looking at the bigger picture, the current global capital markets are presenting a rather complex game of chess. To understand this situation, one must analyze from two dimensions: macroeconomic background and capital flows. The Bank of Japan recently started a rate hike cycle, but the market’s reaction has been quite strange—based on historical experience, the first two rounds of rate hikes by the BOJ triggered significant market volatility, yet this round has been unusually calm. Even considering that the market has already priced in the negative expectations, the subdued response still exceeds reasonable expectations.

On the US side, the economic fundamentals are also behaving "abnormally." They are neither as strong as expected nor signaling a clear recession; instead, they are wavering in the middle. This uncertainty causes market participants to tread carefully and test the bottom line cautiously. From a capital perspective, the battle between institutional and retail investors is even more intense, with no one daring to be too aggressive.