Gold prices break through key resistance! Silver hits a new all-time high. Precious metals year-end market analysis

Technical Breakthrough, Multiple Parties Poised for Action

From a technical perspective, the gold price trend has reached a critical level. Analysts point out that for spot gold to establish an upward momentum, it needs to effectively break through the psychological barrier of $4381/oz—this was the all-time high set in October. Once stabilized above this level, the upward targets will sequentially point to $4400, $4450, and even $4500/oz. Conversely, if the gold price retraces and falls below $4300/oz, the technicals will test the December 11 high of $4285/oz, with further support levels at $4250 and $4200/oz.

Spot Market Booming, Silver Hits New All-Time High

On Monday morning in the Asian market, spot gold performed brilliantly, trading around $4372/oz, up $33 within 24 hours. Even more remarkable was the performance of silver—its price surged 1.3% to $68.05/oz, once again setting a new record. Behind this rally in silver, supply-side tensions remain. Shanghai silver futures trading volume recently soared to levels close to those during the supply shortage two months ago, fully reflecting ongoing market enthusiasm for precious metals.

Rate Cut Expectations and Safe-Haven Demand Double-Drive

The fundamental logic behind the significant rise in precious metals is clear. Influenced by recent ambiguous economic data, market participants are increasingly betting on the Fed cutting rates twice in 2026. The accommodative monetary policy environment is naturally favorable for non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

Additionally, escalating geopolitical risks have further enhanced the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets. The U.S. continues to intensify its blockade on Venezuelan oil, and Ukraine has launched its first attack targeting the Russian “shadow fleet” in the Mediterranean. These tensions have all boosted investor demand for safe assets.

Optimistic Institutional Outlook and Clear Capital Support

Precious metals are entering a historic year-end. Gold has gained about two-thirds of its annual increase, while silver has more than doubled since the beginning of the year—both achieving their strongest annual performances since 1979. Behind this achievement are multiple factors: central banks worldwide continue to increase their holdings of physical gold, and capital flows steadily into exchange-traded funds (ETF) backed by physical metals.

Data shows that gold ETFs have experienced net capital inflows for five consecutive weeks; according to the World Gold Council, apart from May, total holdings of gold funds have increased every month this year. Silver has also benefited from surging demand and supply mismatches at trading centers, with the imbalance between price and liquidity further supporting silver prices.

It is worth noting that institutional investors and central banks are beginning to compete for the limited supply of physical gold bars. Goldman Sachs recently released a report setting a baseline target price of $4900/oz for gold next year, emphasizing greater upside risks and indicating that gold prices still have room for further rise.

As of 09:02 Beijing time, spot gold is quoted at $4372.40/oz.