Ethereum Convergence Point Signals Patient Capital's Bargain Zone—Can $2,895 Anchor Renewed Buying?

ETH slides to within striking distance of long-term holders’ average entry level, as on-chain data reveals 17 million ETH added to accumulation wallets despite macro turbulence and elevated uncertainty.

The Setup: When Price Nears Patient Capital’s Cost Floor

Ethereum is currently trading around $2,95K, down 0.73% over the past 24 hours, with a circulating market cap of $355.51B. After weeks of sustained selling pressure, the second-largest cryptocurrency is hovering just 8% above a level that has historically attracted institutional accumulators and long-term investors: the Accumulation Addresses Realized Price, marked at $2,895 according to CryptoQuant data.

This metric is not a random support level. It represents the average cost basis of wallets that have methodically stacked ETH across multiple market cycles—investors who ignore short-term noise and buy when fear dominates headlines. When spot price approaches this zone, the narrative shifts from “how much further can liquidation pressure drive the market down?” to “where will value-conscious buyers start building positions again?”

2025 Accumulation: Fear Became Opportunity

The conviction among long-term holders remains striking. During 2025, approximately 17 million ETH flowed into accumulation addresses, expanding holdings in these wallets from roughly 10 million to over 27 million ETH. This occurred against a backdrop of macro shocks, policy uncertainty, and moments when broader crypto sentiment turned decidedly fragile.

The most extreme test came during the April 2025 trade-policy crisis, when the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index spiked to 629 points—roughly 50% above pandemic-era extremes. Rather than capitulating, long-term holders accelerated their purchases during that period. Ethereum dipped decisively below the $2,895 cost basis only once in the year, and even then, patient capital treated weakness as an accumulation opportunity.

That behavioral pattern is significant: it suggests that whenever ETH faces deeper pressure, there exists a floor of dormant demand ready to re-engage. If price were to fall another 8% from current levels, it would again converge on that $2,895 benchmark. Historical precedent implies such zones function as dense demand bands rather than knife-edge turning points—price may probe below temporarily, but sustained weakness at those depths has been rare.

Technical Support: Holding for Now, But Fragile

On the weekly timeframe, Ethereum maintains a structural support band around $3,000, though recent volatility tested that resolve. Price briefly broke below $3,000 last week before snapping higher, suggesting some dip-buying emerged near the 200-week moving average—a line that has historically marked major cycle lows.

Current resistance sits at the 50-week moving average near $3,500. A decisive weekly close above that level would signal the pullback is stabilizing into consolidation rather than accelerating into a deeper decline. Conversely, if the $3,000 zone surrenders and demand fails to materialize, the path opens toward a fuller probe of the $2,800–$2,900 region—which aligns precisely with the accumulation cost basis that long-term holders are monitoring intently.

The Caveat: One Lens Among Many

CryptoQuant’s accumulation address data provides a valuable window into long-term holder behavior, but it captures only one dimension of market structure. Derivative positioning, institutional flow outside tracked wallets, and unforeseen macro shocks could all push ETH lower before any durable recovery crystallizes.

The April 2025 episode offers a useful parallel: sentiment collapsed, long-term support was tested, and then the market reversed sharply. Yet parallels are not guarantees. If economic conditions deteriorate or crypto-specific contagion spreads, ETH may undercut familiar support zones before the $2,895 cost basis reasserts itself as a magnet for patient capital.

For now, the market sits at an inflection point—close enough to accumulated buyer interest to matter, yet far enough above it to allow additional downside risk.