The Beige Book determines the direction, what is the key to the AUD/HKD trend?

Federal Reserve Policy Indicator Revealed Tonight

On November 26, U.S. stock futures showed positive signals before the market open, with the three major indices futures generally rising—Dow Jones futures up 0.26%, S&P 500 futures up 0.27%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.35%. Among them, Google (GOOG) had the most notable pre-market gain, rising 1.31%, amid market rumors that Meta will adopt Google TPU chips. In contrast, NVIDIA (NVDA) retreated 1.36%, and Tesla (TSLA) edged up 0.55%.

Beige Book and Initial Jobless Claims Data Diverge, USD Outlook Split

Today’s U.S. stock trading highlights three key data points. At 21:30 Eastern Time, initial jobless claims and September durable goods orders will be released. Market expectations are for 225,000 initial claims; if the actual number exceeds expectations, it could pressure the USD. More critically, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book at 3:00 a.m. Thursday, which often serves as a policy direction indicator—optimistic data will benefit the USD, while pessimistic outlooks may weaken the currency.

Rate Cut Expectations Rise, Gold Prices Hit New Highs

Due to recent U.S. PPI and retail sales figures falling short of expectations, market forecasts for a dovish Fed stance have increased. Currently, traders have priced in an 85% chance of a rate cut in December. As a result, gold has become a safe-haven favorite, rising 0.78% to $4,162 per ounce at the time of writing, reflecting investors’ expectations of a weaker USD.

Australia’s Inflation Surpasses Expectations, AUD/USD Rises for Fourth Consecutive Day

Australia’s October CPI annual growth rate reached 3.8%, higher than the market forecast of 3.6%, dampening bets on an RBA rate cut. The AUD/USD has risen 0.6% to 0.6505, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains. Notably, the AUD/HKD exchange rate is also supported by Australian inflation data, and the linked exchange rate mechanism means AUD/HKD will mainly follow the trend of AUD/USD.

RBNZ Turns Hawkish, NZD Surges Significantly

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced a 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25%, in line with expectations, but also indicated that the easing cycle is nearing its end, signaling a shift to a more hawkish stance. This change directly pushed the NZD/USD up 1.05% to 0.5678, reflecting the market’s quick response to the policy shift.

In currency pairs like AUD/HKD and NZD/HKD, central bank policy stance changes often determine medium-term trends. As the Beige Book approaches, the final judgment on the USD’s movement will reshape the relative strength of major currency pairs.