Master the US CPI release schedule: The 2024 investor's essential guide to inflation

Why Should Investors Pay Attention to US CPI?

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is regarded as a global financial market indicator. Whenever CPI data is released, US stocks, bonds, and even the crypto market tend to fluctuate accordingly. This is no coincidence—US CPI is an important reference for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, and every step the Fed takes directly impacts global asset prices.

In comparison, the US PCE data, while also important (as it forms the basis for Fed decisions), is released slightly later, so markets tend to focus more on the earlier公布 CPI data.

2024 US CPI Taiwan Time Release Schedule

US CPI is announced on the first business day of each month or the closest business day, with specific times adjusted for daylight saving time:

• During Daylight Saving Time: 20:30 Taiwan Time
• During Standard Time: 21:30 Taiwan Time

Below is the complete 2024 US CPI release schedule in Taiwan Time:

CPI, Core CPI, PCE—Key Differences Among the Three Indicators

Investors are often confused by these three indicators. Let’s clarify one by one:

Difference Between CPI and Core CPI

Standard CPI covers all consumer goods prices and is heavily influenced by volatile food and energy prices. Core CPI excludes these two, focusing on other goods and services, providing a more accurate reflection of underlying inflationary pressures.

In other words, core CPI is inflation data “filtered out” of noise, more helpful for judging long-term trends.

Fundamental Difference Between CPI and PCE

The calculation methods differ. CPI uses a Laspeyres weighting approach, while PCE employs a chain-weighted method. In practice, PCE better reflects actual consumer behavior—when oil prices rise, consumers switch to alternative energy sources, and this substitution effect is captured in PCE but not fully in CPI.

Therefore, PCE tends to be less volatile than CPI, and the Fed prefers to reference PCE data.

Year-over-Year Rate VS Month-over-Month Rate

Year-over-year compares the current month’s data with the same month last year, effectively removing seasonal factors and more accurately reflecting the actual inflation trend. Month-over-month reflects short-term fluctuations and can be easily influenced by temporary factors.

Investors should focus on two indicators:

• US CPI Year-over-Year Rate: Released earliest, market reacts most sensitively, potentially causing significant asset volatility
• US PCE Year-over-Year Rate: Released later but more scientifically, and is the basis for Fed decisions

Composition of US CPI: Which Items Are Most Critical?

To forecast CPI trends, understanding its components is essential. The weight distribution of US CPI items is as follows:

• Housing Expenses (30–40%): Largest weight, includes rent and home prices
• Food and Beverages (13–15%): Second largest
• Education and Communication (6–7%)
• Energy (6–8%)
• Medical Insurance (7–9%)
• Transportation Services (5–6%)
• New Vehicles (3–5%)
• Recreation (3–5%)
• Clothing and Apparel (2–3%)
• Used Cars (2–3%)

Housing and food & beverages together account for nearly 50%, so tracking their price changes is most important.

Two Major Drivers Affecting US CPI in 2024

Factor One: Political Risks of the US Election

The 2024 US presidential election results will be announced in November. Regardless of the winner, candidates tend to make excessive promises during campaigns. Coupled with current global situations, this could lead the US to shift internal conflicts outward, increasing geopolitical tensions.

More importantly, rising protectionism and de-globalization could push up import costs, further elevating prices. This suggests US CPI might face upward pressure during the election year.

Factor Two: The Fed’s Rate Cut Pace

According to CME Group data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 6 basis points before the end of 2024. This reflects market belief that inflation will trend downward throughout 2024, assuming no external shocks.

Historical Patterns: Four Cycles of US CPI

Data from the past 30 years show four distinct waves of CPI fluctuations, each linked to different economic events:

First Cycle (July 1990 – March 1991): Savings and loan crisis and Gulf War drove oil prices up, leading to recession.

Second Cycle (September 2000 – October 2001): Dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 attacks hit simultaneously, plunging the economy into a downturn.

Third Cycle (January 2008 – June 2009): Subprime mortgage crisis, CPI bottomed out.

Fourth Cycle (March 2020 – present): COVID-19 pandemic caused economic stagnation, CPI dropped sharply. Subsequently, massive Fed stimulus caused CPI to surge from late 2020 to June 2022 peak. As global pandemic easing and logistics normalize, CPI entered a downward cycle.

This history signals an important insight: Global logistics conditions have a far greater impact on US inflation than previously expected.

The Red Sea Crisis and Its Impact on Logistics Costs

Since late 2023, attacks by Houthi forces on Red Sea shipping routes have forced ships to reroute, significantly increasing transit times and costs. Sea freight rates on Eurasian routes doubled within weeks.

While not yet causing widespread logistics paralysis like the Suez Canal blockage in 2021, regional logistics cost increases will eventually reflect in consumer prices, warranting ongoing monitoring.

2024 US CPI Outlook

Forecasting CPI depends on economic fundamentals. According to IMF projections:

• US GDP growth in 2024 is expected at 2.1%, ranking second among major economies
• Global growth is projected at 3.1%
• Global inflation in 2024 is expected at 5.8%, dropping to 4.4% in 2025

The relatively strong US economy suggests inflation may not decline rapidly to low levels.

From commodities’ perspective: In the first half of 2023, bulk commodities (especially crude oil) declined sharply, so CPI in early 2024 is unlikely to fall quickly due to a “low base effect.” Meanwhile, oil inventories are decreasing, supporting oil prices.

Considering all factors, we expect US CPI to bottom in Q1 2024, rebound in Q2, then decline again in the second half. This trajectory could exert downward pressure on US stocks.

Summary

US CPI, as a key indicator of the global financial market, warrants close attention to its release schedule and data changes. The 2024 Taiwan CPI release times are listed above, and investors should prepare in advance.

To truly understand CPI, it’s crucial to distinguish between CPI, Core CPI, and PCE. Markets react sharply to early CPI YoY data, while the Fed focuses more on PCE YoY.

The main variables influencing US CPI in 2024 are the US election and the Fed’s rate cut pace. Based on IMF forecasts, commodity prices, geopolitical tensions, and logistics costs, CPI is expected to trend downward throughout the year, with notable fluctuations along the way. Investors should position themselves ahead of CPI release dates rather than react passively after data is published.