December 24 Financial Briefing: Global bond market turmoil drags down risk assets, US 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, Crypto declines narrow

2025-12-24 19:36:58

Global Bond Markets Fluctuations Trigger Chain Reactions

The hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan Governor caused intense market volatility, with a sharp sell-off in Japanese bonds impacting the global bond markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.09%, Germany’s 10-year government bond yield reached 2.75%, and Japan’s 2-year bond yield broke through the 1% threshold for the first time since 2008, with the 10-year yield touching a high of 1.88%. Risk aversion surged, with the VIX fear index soaring by 5.45%, indicating a clear increase in market risk appetite.

Precious Metals and Cryptocurrencies Under Pressure

Amid tightening global liquidity, safe-haven funds flooded into gold markets. Spot gold rose by 0.28% to $4,232, while international silver prices hit a new high for the fifth consecutive trading day, more than doubling this year’s gains. Conversely, cryptocurrencies came under broad pressure, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 8% intraday to $83,814 before rebounding to $87,493, ending the 24-hour period down 0.60%; Ethereum also fell over 6%, currently trading at $2,940. The correlation between crypto assets and high-risk assets like stocks remains high.

Global Stock Markets Generally Weak

The US major indices all declined: Dow Jones fell 0.9%, S&P 500 down 0.53%, and Nasdaq dropped 0.38%. European markets also declined across the board, with Germany’s DAX 30 falling the most at 1.04%, the UK FTSE 100 down 0.18%, and France’s CAC 40 down 0.32%. Popular tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia and Apple rising over 1%, while Broadcom fell over 4%, and Google and Microsoft declined more than 1%. Crypto and solar-related stocks were weak, with Coinbase down over 4% and Bit Digital down over 5%.

US Manufacturing Recession Deepens

The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, the lowest in four months, marking the ninth consecutive month in contraction. New orders index dropped to 47.4, employment index even lower at 44, and supplier delivery index at 49.3, all indicating continued weakening of the industry. Among surveyed companies, 67% reported focusing on controlling labor, with insufficient recruitment. Price pressures index rose to 58.5, while backlog orders index was at 44. Production rebounded to 51.4, and inventory levels decreased moderately to 48.9.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Adjusted

The US Bank Global Research Department revised its policy outlook, now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps at the December meeting, instead of holding steady as previously anticipated. The bank further predicts two more 25 bps rate cuts in June and July 2026, with the final target range lowered to 3.00%-3.25%. Analysts note that this adjustment is mainly due to leadership changes. Currently, most major global investment banks also expect a 25 bps rate cut next week, with only Morgan Stanley and a few others predicting rates will remain unchanged.

Technology and Industry News

Nvidia announced an investment of $2 billion to acquire common stock of chip design software company Synopsys at $414.79 per share, establishing a strategic partnership. DeepSeek launched the V3.2 series models, with inference capabilities approaching GPT-5, achieving a 93.1% pass rate on math benchmarks. Airbus stock plunged 10.8% intraday due to urgent flight bans on A320 series aircraft over software and metal panel quality issues; most of the approximately 6,000 affected aircraft worldwide have completed technical repairs.

Market Data Overview

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