Is the 2025 gold still rising? Is there still a chance for retail investors to enter now?

Recently, gold prices have been on a fierce surge, approaching record highs since the end of last year through October this year. Many people are asking the same question: Can this gold rally still be played? Is now the time to buy and catch the dip?

Let’s look at the data first. According to Reuters, the gold price increase from 2024 to 2025 has already reached the highest level in nearly 30 years, surpassing 31% in 2007 and 29% in 2010. In other words, this is indeed the most aggressive surge in nearly 30 years.

Why is gold prices so fierce? What’s behind the wave?

First driver: Market uncertainty caused by tariff policies

Since Trump took office, a series of tariff policies have directly ignited the gold market. Market risk aversion has increased, and investors have flocked to gold for safety. Based on historical experience, during the US-China trade war in 2018, gold prices typically saw a short-term rise of 5 to 10% amid policy uncertainty. This time, the surge is obviously even more intense.

Second driver: Expectations of Fed rate cuts

Expectations of rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, and increasing its attractiveness. This is a classic logic, as observed from historical gold prices—gold prices are significantly negatively correlated with real interest rates; when rates fall, gold rises.

Interestingly, after the September FOMC meeting, gold prices actually declined. The reason is simple: a 25 basis point rate cut was fully expected and already priced in by the market. Moreover, Powell described this rate cut as a “risk management rate cut,” without hinting at continued cuts in the future. Investors became cautious about the pace of future rate cuts, causing gold to retreat after the surge.

According to CME interest rate futures data, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 bps at the December meeting is 84.7%. This data can serve as a logical basis for predicting gold price trends.

Third driver: Continued accumulation of gold reserves by global central banks

This is the key long-term support for gold prices. According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. In the first nine months, central banks have accumulated about 634 tons of gold, still far higher than other periods.

More importantly, the WGC’s central bank survey shows that most central banks (76%) expect their gold holdings to increase moderately or significantly over the next five years, while most also anticipate a decline in dollar reserves. This indicates that under the trend of de-dollarization worldwide, gold is becoming the preferred reserve asset for many countries.

What other factors are pushing up gold prices?

Global high debt + inflation concerns

By 2025, global debt will reach $307 trillion. High debt levels mean limited flexibility in interest rate policies, leading to accommodative monetary policies, and lower real interest rates, indirectly boosting gold’s attractiveness.

Declining confidence in the dollar

When the dollar weakens or market confidence in the dollar drops, gold priced in USD benefits and attracts more capital inflows.

Geopolitical risks

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and continued conflicts in the Middle East increase the safe-haven demand for precious metals, causing short-term volatility and capital inflows.

Social media amplification

Continuous media coverage and social sentiment hype lead to large short-term capital inflows into gold markets, causing consecutive surges.

How do institutions view the future of gold?

Despite recent volatility, major financial institutions remain optimistic about long-term prospects.

JPMorgan’s commodities team considers this correction a “healthy adjustment” and is more bullish on the long-term trend, raising the Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs reiterates a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Bank of America has raised its 2026 target price to $5,000 per ounce, with strategists suggesting gold could break $6,000 next year.

International jewelry retailers (Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, Chow Sang Sang, etc.) still quote mainland China retail prices for 24K gold jewelry above 1100 RMB/gram, with no significant decline, reflecting market confidence in gold prices.

As retail investors, is it still possible to jump in now?

After understanding the logic behind this gold rally, the question is: Is there still an opportunity to enter now?

The answer is yes, but it depends on your risk tolerance and trading experience.

If you’re a short-term trader, volatile markets can bring many opportunities. Liquidity is ample, and the direction of movement is relatively easier to judge. Especially during sharp surges or drops, the momentum of bulls and bears is clear, increasing profit opportunities.

If you’re a beginner aiming for short-term trading, start with small amounts and avoid blindly increasing your position. A poor mindset can lead to quick losses. Learn to use economic calendars to track US economic data to assist your trading decisions.

If you want to buy physical gold for long-term holding, be prepared to endure significant volatility. Long-term bullishness is valid, but you need to consider whether you can tolerate the intense fluctuations along the way.

If you want to allocate gold in your investment portfolio, that’s fine, but don’t forget that gold’s volatility isn’t lower than stocks. Putting all your assets into gold is not a smart choice; diversification is safer.

If you want to maximize returns, you can hold long-term while taking advantage of price fluctuations for short-term trades, especially during periods of increased volatility around US economic data releases and Fed meetings. But this requires experience and risk management skills.

Things to know before investing in gold

Gold price volatility is not less than stocks. The average annual amplitude of gold is 19.4%, while the S&P 500’s is 14.7%.

Gold cycles are extremely long. Using it as a hedge over 10+ years can be effective, but within that decade, prices can double or be cut in half.

Physical gold trading costs are relatively high, generally between 5% and 20%.

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversification remains the best way to reduce risk.

Overall, as a “globally trusted” reserve asset, the fundamental long- and medium-term support factors for gold haven’t changed. This wave of rally isn’t over; both long-term and short-term opportunities still exist. However, caution is advised due to short-term volatility risks, especially around US economic data releases and Fed meetings.