What does the price of gold expect in 2026? Surpassing levels are approaching expectations

In 2025, we witnessed an exceptional rise in gold prices, surpassing $4300 per ounce in mid-October before retreating toward $4000 in November. This volatility raised a natural question among observers: Can the yellow metal break the $5000 barrier during 2026?

Record-breaking demand levels

The continued astonishing increase in demand for gold reflects a profound strategic shift in investor behavior. According to data from the World Gold Council, total demand in Q2 2025 was approximately 1249 tons, an increase of 45% in value, reaching $132 billion.

Gold ETFs (ETFs) absorbed massive cash inflows, leading to a 6% rise in managed assets to 3838 tons of holdings. This figure approaches the historical peak of 3929 tons, indicating ongoing buying pressure throughout 2026.

Meanwhile, central banks worldwide added 244 tons in the first quarter alone, a 24% increase over the five-year quarterly average. Now, 44% of central banks hold gold reserves compared to only 37% in 2024, reflecting a clear global trend toward diversification away from the US dollar.

Limited supply increases upward pressure

Although mine production reached a record level of 856 tons in Q1 2025, this represents a modest 1% increase. The main issue is that demand is growing much faster than supply.

Recycled gold declined by 1%, as jewelry owners preferred to hold onto their assets expecting further increases. This halt in recycling signifies a real shortage in the market.

Additionally, average extraction costs reached $1470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade. Rising costs limit production expansion, meaning the supply-demand gap will continue to act as a price support against declines.

Monetary developments: rate cuts support the rally

The US Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% in October 2025. The market expects a further 25 basis point cut in December 2025, making it the third rate cut of the year.

Reports from BlackRock suggest that the Fed may target a 3.4% rate by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. Each additional cut reduces real yields on bonds, boosting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

European and Japanese central banks are following similar easing policies, creating a global environment supportive of higher gold prices in 2026.

Geopolitical risks and sovereign debt

Geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 increased demand by 7% year-over-year, according to Reuters. Tensions in the Taiwan Strait and concerns over oil supplies prompted major funds to hedge against risks.

The International Monetary Fund warned that global public debt exceeded 100% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. This enhances gold’s status as a safe haven.

About 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold positions during Q3 2025, indicating growing caution over long-term financial risks.

Weak dollar and declining real yields

The dollar index fell by 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 until November 21, driven by rate cut expectations. At the same time, US 10-year bond yields dropped from 4.6% to 4.07%.

This dual trend supports gold demand, especially as real yields stabilized around 1.2%, according to Bank of America. Investors are seeking to rebalance their portfolios away from dollar assets.

2026 Outlook: When will gold reach $5000?

Major investment banks agree on a strong bullish outlook:

• HSBC: expects gold to reach $5000 in the first half of 2026, with an average of $4600 throughout the year
• Bank of America: raised its forecast to $5000 as a potential peak with an average of $4400
• Goldman Sachs: revised its forecast to $4900 per ounce
• J.P. Morgan: expects to reach $5055 by mid-2026

The most common range among analysts is between $4800 and $5000 as a potential peak, with an average between $4200 and $4800 throughout the year.

Outlook in the Middle East

Central banks in the region are accelerating their reserve accumulations. The Central Bank of Egypt added reserves in Q1 2025, while Qatar’s added 3 tons.

Based on global forecasts:

• In Egypt: gold prices could reach around 522,580 EGP per ounce, an increase of 158.46%
• In Saudi Arabia: if gold hits $5000, it could translate to about 18750-19000 SAR
• In the UAE: at the same price, estimated around 18375-19000 AED

These projections remain contingent on exchange rate stability and continued global demand.

Correction risks: potential dangers

Despite the overall optimism, HSBC warned of a correction toward $4200 in the second half of 2026 if investors start taking profits. However, it ruled out a drop below $3800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warned that prices above $4800 could face a “price credibility test”, especially with weak industrial demand.

However, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank analysts confirm that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward due to strategic shifts in investor perception of it as a long-term asset.

Technical analysis: what does the current price say?

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4065.01, after touching a high of $4381.44 on October 20.

The chart shows a break of the upward channel, but the main short-term uptrend line remains around $4050.

The RSI (RSI) is steady at 50, indicating a neutral market with no clear bias. The MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

Technical forecasts suggest a sideways range between $4000 and $4220 in the near term, with potential to break $4200 toward $4400 and later $4680.

Summary: Is gold really heading toward $5000?

Gold price forecasts for the upcoming period depend on a delicate balance between strong positive factors and potential challenges. As long as the Fed continues rate cuts, the dollar remains weak, and central banks keep buying, gold is poised to reach new record levels.

The gap between increasing demand and limited supply provides strong support for gold price expectations in 2026. Geopolitical risks and sovereign debt concerns reinforce gold’s role as a safe haven.

However, short-term corrections are possible if investors start taking profits. Monitoring global monetary policies and key economic indicators in early 2026 will be crucial.