USD/MXN: Why will the dollar rise in the coming days in the 2025 outlook

Indicator Warning: Technical Signals Indicate subirá el dólar

Currently, USD/MXN hovers around the 19.88 level, but technical indicators have already issued clear signals. RSI is at a neutral 53.42, indicating room for further upside, with an overbought zone likely once it breaks above 70. More noteworthy is RVI at 34.60, reflecting weak short-term momentum, which precisely suggests that the rise of subirá el dólar needs fundamental catalysts to support it.

The Bollinger Bands show USD/MXN has touched the upper band, implying the recent rally has been quite fierce. If it can stabilize above the key resistance at 20.00, the technical validity of this upward trend will be confirmed.

Why Fundamentals Support subirá el dólar in 2025

The growth rate differential between the US and Mexico is key. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Mexico’s GDP growth at only 1.3% in 2025, while the US is expected to grow at 2.1%, directly pushing up the USD/MXN exchange rate. Countries with faster economic growth tend to have more attractive currencies, leading capital to flow naturally into the US.

Divergence in monetary policies cannot stop the trend of subirá el dólar. Although both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Mexico are cutting interest rates, US Treasury yields remain competitive. The Bank of Mexico currently maintains a 10.50% rate but is in a rate-cutting cycle. This policy shift means the peso’s attractiveness is declining.

Geopolitics and Elections: Catalysts for subirá el dólar

Trump’s leading position in the US elections continues to strengthen market confidence in the dollar. His proposed 200% tariff threats cause capital to flee into safe assets—namely, the dollar. For Mexico, this trade policy uncertainty suppresses the peso.

Domestic judicial reforms in Mexico have also triggered political turmoil, further weakening investor confidence in the peso. When political stability is compromised, capital flows out, currency pressure increases, making subirá el dólar inevitable.

Oil Prices and Import-Export Dynamics

As one of the world’s major oil exporters, Mexico is highly sensitive to oil prices. Rising tensions in the Middle East push oil prices higher, but in the medium to long term, global oil supply remains ample, which could pressure prices downward. This would weaken Mexico’s foreign exchange income and further support subirá el dólar.

2025 Exchange Rate Forecast: Divergence of Multiple Data Sources

Different institutions have widely varying expectations for USD/MXN:

Optimists (Longforecast, CoinCodex) believe subirá el dólar will reach the 22-25 peso range, while conservatives see a year-end target of 19-20. This divergence reflects market uncertainty about 2025.

Core Variables Affecting USD/MXN

Interest rate differential: The spread between US 10-year Treasury yields and Mexico’s bonds directly influences capital flows.

Oil prices: A $1 decrease per barrel typically depreciates the peso by about 0.5%, based on historical patterns.

Trade data: Trade flows between the US and Mexico determine the actual demand for each other’s currencies.

Political risk premium: Post-election policy implementation and reforms in Mexico influence risk sentiment.

How to Operate in This Market

Long-term bullish (going long USD/MXN) is well-supported: when subirá el dólar becomes consensus, a breakout above 20.00 can be a buy signal. Set stop-loss at 19.50, with a target of 21.50.

Short-term trading should closely monitor Federal Reserve meetings, employment reports, and Mexican inflation data. These events can cause 100-200 point swings, offering arbitrage opportunities for short-term traders.

Risk management is crucial: When using CFDs, strictly control leverage—1:5 or 1:10 leverage combined with 2-3% stop-loss is sufficient.

Final Judgment

Looking ahead to 2025, the rise of subirá el dólar is highly probable supported by fundamentals, technicals, and political factors. US economic growth surpassing Mexico, the Fed maintaining high interest rates, and geopolitical risks boosting safe-haven demand—all point in the same direction: pressure on the peso, strengthening the dollar.

Investors should prepare for USD/MXN to surge toward 21-22. For those bullish on the dollar, this presents a relatively clear trading opportunity. However, always remember that forex markets carry significant risks, and proper risk management is always the top priority.